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市净率位于65年来低位 全球能源股或迎“抄底良机”

2017-09-21 07:17:33   中国经济网

知名数据研究和服务商Empirical Research Partners Analysis日前最新公布的数据显示,其统计了全球市值排名靠前的1500只能源、资源以及相关股票,发现该板块股票的总体市净率处于自1952年以来的最低水平。

实际上,近来机构投资者也竞相将资金投入能源股中。以最受关注的美股市场为例,最近一个月的走势中,能源股成为最大功臣,帮助美股多次刷新高位。

能源板块表现抢眼

Empirical Research Partners Analysis统计显示,从1952年至今,全球市值排名靠前的1500只能源、资源以及相关股票历史平均市净率为0.83,在1980年曾达到峰值1.59,此后涨跌交替,在2008年达到1.25后就开始不断下跌,目前为0.55,已经处于65年以来的最低值。换言之,其便宜的价格值得入手。

邓普顿全球股票团队首席投资官诺曼·波斯玛(Norman J. Boersma)日前接受中国证券报记者专访时表示,能源股的低估值无疑为投资者提供了机会,可以选择一些业绩和发展具有潜力的该板块股票逢低买入。

最近一个月以来,美股中的能源板块表现抢眼。标普能源股指数涨幅累计上涨8%,成为涨幅最高的板块。

富达投资集团的数据还显示,美股能源设备及服务指数和石油天然气及可消耗燃料指数的涨幅分别达到10%及8%,表现远超标普500指数的3%。

主要个股中,最近一个月,西南能源股价累计上涨15%,康菲石油、油气勘探商赫斯公司以及炼油公司瓦莱罗能源累计涨幅也均超过10%。

而最近5个交易日以来,切萨皮克能源股价大涨12%,Range资源公司上涨13%,新田勘探公司上涨10%,贝克休斯、EOG资源、Cimarex能源股价上涨均超过7%。

低估值提供抄底良机

分析人士指出,有数据显示库存萎缩且全球需求有望回升,国际油价近期持续反弹,受此带动,能源板块能够大幅走强。

在持续涨势背后,一些机构分析师认为,投资者已经开始为三季报布局。摩根士丹利报告指出,能源企业近期业绩出现改善是其股价走强的主因。而投资者可能还看好其三季度业绩表现。他们预计,就像今年前两个财季一样,三季报也将带来超预期的营收。

基建资本咨询公司分析师Jay Hatfield表示,美股能源板块基本面仍然向好,利好因素包括经济增长提振能源需求,美元疲软使得以美元计价的油价更能够被接受,以及布伦特和WTI原油价差扩大将提振美国原油出口等。

Tortoise资本公司投资组合经理萨默尔表示,仅从上周表现来看,表现最好的一些能源企业主要是今年以来显著跑输大市的公司,比如切萨皮克能源、Range资源公司等。随着欧佩克考虑延长减产协议,油价和能源股表现将继续获得支撑。但也有业内人士同样警告称,能源股仍然需要面对一些风险因素,特别是欧佩克原油政策的不确定性。

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