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造纸行业将迎全面涨价:原料价格高企

2017-09-21 07:12:04   中国经济网

根据华印纸箱9月20日提供的数据,全国纸板纸箱价格普遍上调7%-30%。有纸板厂在调价函中提醒,市场波动远未结束,原材料还有大幅上涨空间,并可能造成原材料紧缺,有些订单不能按要求生产,报价将实行一单一价。

百川资讯称,造纸行业旺季来临,下游备货积极,造纸行业基本零库存,行业面临全面涨价。叠加多地秋冬大气污染综合治理等因素,造纸行业涨价基本确定。

旺季来临需求增加

百川资讯造纸行业研究员对中国证券报记者表示:“造纸行业旺季已经来临,9月份到年底节日较多,购物潮引发纸品需求增多。废纸、纸浆等原材料价格居高不下,行业面临全面涨价。目前,造纸企业基本处于零库存态势,下游企业争相囤货。”

华泰证券指出,文化纸方面,国庆前双胶纸和铜版纸均处于不接单或限制接单状态。9月中旬,铜版纸和双胶纸价格环比8月中旬分别仅上涨1.5%和2.3%,而同期木浆价格大幅上涨22.3%。预计文化纸涨价弹性较大,下半年纸价有望突破上半年高点。

9月14日-15日,晨鸣纸业、华泰股份、亚太森博、银河纸业、美利云、新乡鸿泰纸业纷纷上调双胶纸、铜版纸价格,幅度在300-600元/吨。

箱板瓦楞纸方面,外废进口配额紧张,产业链库存处低位,叠加节日需求提前备货,9月上旬箱板瓦楞纸价格大幅上涨。在外废配额无新批复额度的情况下,箱板瓦楞纸价格存在来自成本端的支撑;即便出现新一批的外废增补额度释放,纸价也难以高位回落。

业内人士表示,年内第二批增补额度数量有限,最多为全年外废额度的10%,且海外废纸到岸需1.5-2个月时间。在环保监管趋严,旺季需求增加的情况下,四季度箱板瓦楞纸仍将处于供需紧平衡状态。

相关公司业绩向好

原材料上涨对造纸企业成本造成较大冲击,但下游客户备货热情逐渐高涨,造纸企业酝酿涨价,将对企业业绩形成支撑。

行业整体业绩向好。数据显示,13家造纸企业已披露三季度业绩预告,预增5家,略增6家,扭亏1家,另有一家为不确定。造纸行业执行供给侧改革、环保政策趋严、淘汰落后产能,成为相关企业业绩增长的重要因素。

借助涨价东风,多家造纸企业加大产能投入。以太阳纸业为例,公司预计2017年1-9月份净利润为12.49亿元-13.8亿元,同比增长90%-110%。公司表示,各项在建工程项目2016年相继完工投产,新增产能释放,部分产品提价,产品毛利相比去年同期有所增加。

博汇纸业表示,受益于环保整治及供给侧改革等因素的影响,公司主要产品销售价格较上年同期有所上涨。荣晟环保称,受造纸行业执行供给侧改革、环保政策趋严、淘汰落后产能等因素的影响,公司主要产品销售价格较去年同期上升。

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