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机构预测8月物价或现小幅上涨
2017-09-21 06:57:15 中国经济网
《经济参考报》记者综合多家机构预测,8月份我国居民消费价格指数(CPI)和工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)同比将小幅上涨。专家表示,猪肉价格、部分原材料价格近期走高引发市场关心,但是这些涨价不会改变物价整体运行趋势,物价下半年不会出现大幅走高。
因为今年夏天全国性高温天气影响了蔬菜等农产品的生产和供应,使得食用农产品价格出现持续上涨。商务部公布的每周食用农产品价格指数显示,8月食用农产品价格出现持续的小幅上涨。从国家统计局公布的50个城市主要食品平均价格旬度变动情况来看,8月上中旬主要食品价格也是涨多跌少。
据此,多位专家预测CPI同比涨幅或现小幅上涨。交通银行首席经济学家连平表示,预计本月食品价格环比将结束此前的持续回落,出现明显的回升,预计上涨1.4个百分点左右。初步判断2017年8月份CPI同比涨幅可能在1.5%至1.7%左右,取中值为1.6%,同比涨幅小幅回升。兴业证券研报也指出,8月CPI同比基数1.3%,与7月基本持平。
近期,对CPI走势影响很大的猪肉价格出现回升,引发市场关注。海通证券首席经济学家姜超认为短期主要是季节性主导的小反弹,年内猪价大涨的概率非常低。姜超表示,现阶段猪肉消费需求平稳,对价格影响相对有限。如果没有其它极端天气等突发因素影响,单纯的猪价难以推动CPI大幅走高。
值得一提的是,近期工业产品价格整体回升,多位专家预计今年8月PPI环比涨幅将加大,同比涨幅也将有所上涨。而近期钢铁、有色等部分大宗商品的价格再度走强并创出新高,令市场开始担心上游原材料价格上涨会向中下游行业传导,最终推动CPI上涨。
姜超表示,尽管近期商品涨价导致PPI环比可能会有所回升,但去年基数较高,所以年内通胀并不会成为太大的忧虑。
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