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标的资产持续回落

2017-09-20 09:37:09   中国经济网

9月以来,上证50ETF持续回落,周二日内振荡下跌至2.72,较前期高点2.818下跌3.5%。期权市场交投活跃,全日累计成交736386手,较上一交易日减少120693手,认购与认沽分别成交455967手和280419手,成交量PCR值维持在0.65左右,较前值几乎无变化,市场情绪偏乐观。持仓量方面,主力9月合约中,认购与认沽分别持仓563427手和503878手,均超过总体持仓量的50%。总体来看,认购持仓近两周呈现明显增长态势,连续7个交易日超过100万手,认沽持仓亦小幅上涨,这在一定程度上说明投资者持续看好后市。从绝对量上看,认购持仓高于认沽,投资者期待标的资产的进一步上涨。

图为期权持仓量对比

标的资产高位回落,导致认购期权全线下跌,最大跌幅达54.9%,认沽合约中,仅有部分虚值合约外,其余合约小幅上涨,涨幅位于1%—7.8%之间。基于上证50ETF期权价格计算而成的中国波动率指数(iVX)日内一路下跌至12.98%,总体看,iVX呈现明显下跌态势。标的资产历史波动率同样小幅下跌,目前保持在12.24%左右。就主力9月合约而言,认购、认沽各合约隐含波动率差异较大,值域位于10%—61%,认购略大于认沽,二者均值分别为27.66%和24.46%,与其相比,远月月份隐含波动率远低于9月合约。从结构上分析,9月认购认沽依然保持“执行价格越高,隐含波动率越低”的左偏结构,实值认购与虚值认沽定价偏高。

图为主力合约隐含波动率对比

综合来看,上证50ETF持续回落,但长期依然保持强势,建议逢低买入虚值认购或卖出虚值认沽,标的资产持有者应积极购入远期认沽期权,防控价格下跌风险,保守投资者可基于波动率偏度结构构建认购价差组合。

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