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央行盛松成:目前是推进人民币国际化有利时机
2017-09-18 07:46:39 中国经济网
中国人民银行参事盛松成日前在“2017中国新加坡高层论坛”上表示,汇率在长期决定于一国经济基本面,但短期往往会受市场非理性预期影响,产生市场超调和“羊群效应”。央行此前在人民币汇率中间价形成中引入“逆周期因子”恰恰是抑制汇率超调和“羊群效应”的有效手段。“逆周期因子”所发挥作用是双向的,无论是汇率单边贬值还是单边升值,逆周期因子都能发挥作用以减缓汇率短期大幅波动。
“目前不是改变人民币汇率形成机制的时间窗口。”盛松成表示,目前我国以市场供求为基础的人民币汇率形成机制,考虑“收盘汇率”和“一篮子货币汇率变化”,配合一定的宏观审慎管理,这不应轻易改变。
推进汇率形成机制改革最好时机应在人民币汇率较稳定时。盛松成说:“目前人民币汇率并非处于稳定期,如改变人民币汇率形成机制,可能加剧市场波动,人民币汇率大升大贬都会对经济带来伤害。其次,世界经济,尤其是美国经济还很不确定。因此,维持人民币汇率基本稳定对我国有利。再次,汇率形成机制改革应与其他金融改革和实体经济改革协调推进,不应单兵突进。”
盛松成表示,目前是推进人民币国际化有利时机。首先,我国已是世界第二大经济体和最大进出口贸易国。人民币国际化应是长期战略目标,时机成熟就应逐步推进。其次,目前人民币汇率已稳中有升,外汇储备已连续7个月增加,足以满足我国预防性需求。随着未来人民币汇率弹性进一步提高,我国需要的外汇储备将进一步下降。再次,我国债券市场对外开放度不断提高,为境外人民币提供回流渠道。最后,我国企业走出去和“一带一路”倡议为人民币国际化创造条件,也提出新要求。
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