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短线有杀跌惯性 投资者可先观望

2017-09-18 07:31:41   中国经济网

每经记者 郑步春

上周四与周五A股连跌,沪综指最终报3353.62点,周跌0.35%。单由沪综指看,五天线与十天线粘合后跌破,短线似已确认步入调整。

上周四的下跌还算是比较温和的,但周五情势有所不同,当天股指跳空低开,这样的缺口通常意味着市场短期情绪忽然变坏。上周四我国公布的8月经济数据显示,部分指标增速放缓,经过一晚上的思考,部分机构可能会进行策略调整,而这在上周五开盘时反映了出来。

回顾本轮升势,大盘是于8月25日以大阳向上突破3300点的,但其后只像样地涨了一天便陷入持续盘整。大盘虽然呈现突破形态,投资者的参与欲望也比较积极,但上周稍早我多次提示风险,我最主要的理由是:市场对未来一个多月走势的看法太过接近。我并不能肯定股市会跌,只是隐隐感到有些不安,我觉得市场通常是不会让多数人踏准节奏的……

上周五盘后公布的8月M2同比增速为8.9%,增速创新低;8月新增人民币贷款1.09万亿元,高于预期的0.95万亿元。这些数据整体中性,其既反映了去杠杆政策的持续性,也反映了实体经济正得到更多支持,“脱虚入实”工作已取得部分成效。

其余消息偏空,上周五晚间,证监会宣布核发9家IPO。证监会近期每周核发IPO家数维持“七上八下”这一节奏,所以这次提升至9家理应带来些利空,尤其是对次新股。另一条消息对股市可能也不太有利,这就是中金所适度调降了沪深300、上证50股指期货交易保证金,还调整了股指期货手续费标准。

如果没有稍像样的利好,估计A股短线还会有些下行压力。由沪综指看,投资者可先看3331点跳空缺口得失,再看3300点整数关支撑,最后看3280点上升趋势线支撑。我觉得再怎么跌,数周内股指也很难跌破3280点。

就操作而言,若投资者仓轻,不妨依上述支撑位渐次酌情低吸。在选择个股方面,投资者对次新股可能得暂时慎重一些。另一值得注意的品种是周期股,其盘子往往较大,大盘调整时更容易吸引部分主流大资金。虽然股市中常会出现些“恶搞”资金,将利空炒成利好,但这在垃圾股、题材股、次新股中更为多见,而体量较大的品种走势通常会相对稳定些。

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