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看多金九银十 重点关注创业板
2017-09-17 08:06:38 中国经济网
《红周刊》特约作者 沈阳 水开
近期,上证指数、深证成指、中小板指数、创业板指数阳线数量明显多于阴线数量,股市成交量也一直温和稳定。对“金九银十”行情,笔者持看多观点,尤其看好创业板。
首先,创业板严重超跌。今年7月18日创业板创下1641点低点,较2015年6月5日的高点4037点,跌去了将近2400点。笔者认为这与中国经济健康发展的背景不符,属于非理性超跌。截至目前,相比2015年的高点,创业板跌幅超50%。而同期上证指数相比2015年的高点5178点,跌幅在35%左右;深成指相比2015年的高点18211点,跌幅约为40%;中小板相比2015年12084点,跌幅约为38%。创业板跌幅明显比其他板块大,而反弹幅度却远远落后于其他板块。但笔者相信,这种差距不会持久,而且一定会以创业板同期涨幅大于其他板块涨幅来缩小。
其次,创业板个股出现了一定的价值洼地。今年5月份以来,主板股指在银行、保险、家电、白酒等权重股的带动下,步入上升通道,指数涨幅可观。相关板块中涨幅超过50%的个股比比皆是,一些能源类的股票,如钢铁、煤炭、锂矿等,翻番的不在少数,在接下来的行情中,期待这类股票在短期内再次暴涨已不太现实。反观创业板,其中很多个股相比主板已经出现了明显的估值优势,而且这种估值优势已经入了国家队的法眼,部分股票成了证金、汇金的投资标的。
再次,创业板已出现走强的势头。目前,创业板整体表现虽不抢眼,但也正慢慢地走出底部区域。尤其是自2017年7月18日低点以来,创业板一直保持上涨势头,其K线走势比上证、深成指数走势强得多。这种趋势一旦形成,应该会延续一段时间,不会马上改变。所以目前我们应该顺势而为,把做多重点放在创业板上,争取有更大的斩获。
最后,创业板中部分股票潜力巨大。创业板个股多数盘子小、市值小、处在新兴行业,这些因素决定了其高估值,同时也高风险,股价经常波动巨大,似乎不宜长线持有。但笔者统计发现,创业板中也有不少值得长线持有的股票,如长盈精密、鸿特精密、国瓷材料、蒙草生态、先导智能等等,这些股票的共同特点是成长性良好。对待这些股票,我们既可以长期投资,也可以波段操作。
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