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广西地储先行投放 郑糖承压走低

2017-09-14 09:57:37   中国经济网

9月6日公布的广西地方储备糖投放招标公告触碰了市场敏感的神经,白糖期货价格应声下跌。截至9月12日,SR1801合约最低跌至6124元/吨。

广西地储投放

本次地储竞拍投标时间是9月15日。6400元/吨的竞拍底价包含了加工费,所以实际竞拍价格等于竞拍单价减去每吨储备糖的加工费。加工费上限500元/吨,价差高者中标。如果糖企报竞拍单价6400/吨,加工费500元/吨,实际竞拍成交价也就是储备糖实际底价5900元/吨。此外,自合同签订之日起,中标人应在3个工作日内支付货款,加上公示期,中标的糖企在竞拍结束后大概半个月之内需要完成货款的支付。这对于即将迎来开榨的糖企还是存在一定的压力。

事实上,在此次储备糖招标公告公布前,市场便已有传言。因此白糖期价于8月29日开始急转直下,在放储公告落地之时再次加速下跌,放储对市场短期的冲击已经被逐步消化。当前工业库存压力不大,截至8月底全国工业库存141.32万吨,略低于去年同期143.31万吨。去年8、9月共进口86万吨,而今年进口数量严控,预期大幅度低于去年,因此广西地储投放的32.6万吨陈糖上对今年进口减少的补充,对市场的冲击本不应如此之大。笔者认为可能是地储先行增加了市场对国家储备糖出库的预期。据最新传言,国家储备糖也即将出库,首轮竞拍16万吨。

增产压力犹存

近期因印度以25%的低关税追加30万吨进口、巴西燃料乙醇加征关税实施、艾玛飓风灾情等因素影响,短期原糖获得支撑。但这只能影响短期市场行情,长周期的市场逻辑依然没有发生变化。在增产周期下,技术阻力以及生产商在15美分/磅之上的套保限制了原糖价格进一步上涨。在刚结束的2017年印度糖会中,KINGSMAN对国际糖市进行了展望,其认为因有利天气促使多国增产,2017/2018年度全球糖产量增幅达到近7年最高水平,全球糖消费量增幅创近7年最低水平。供求关系将从2016/2017年度的160万吨缺口转为490万吨过剩。

隐含波动率下行

白糖期货在经历一轮大跌后,南宁现货-白糖主力合约基差走高至400元/吨以上,是今年以来的高点。基差过高以及技术面的支持,使得SR1801合约在6100点暂时得到支撑,并小幅反弹。但国储将在不久后出库的市场预期则限制白糖期货反弹高度。二者相互制约,使得近两天白糖窄幅振荡。行情振荡整理,隐含波动率将持续下行。此类行情适合卖出期权组合。建议短期内卖出SR1801-P-6000和SR1801-C-6300的宽跨式期权组合,以获取期权时间价值和隐含波动率下行所带来的收益。

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