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CAFI 成分品种涨跌不一

2017-09-13 09:31:33   中国经济网

上周,中国期货市场监控中心农产品期货指数(CAFI)微跌0.54%,至918.91点。其中,油脂指数微跌0.54%,至589.70点;粮食指数微跌0.13%,至1313.20点;软商品指数下跌1.77%,至885.94点;饲料指数微涨0.33%,至1607.63点;油脂油料指数微跌0.05%,至941.34点;谷物指数微跌0.10%,至1061.97点。

上周CAFI指数成分品种涨跌不一,波动率较低。豆一微跌0.06%。三大油脂中棕榈油微跌0.37%,豆油微跌0.41%,菜油下跌1.09%。谷物中玉米微跌-0.12%,强麦微涨0.48%。软商品中棉花上涨1.72%,白糖大跌3.88%,淀粉微涨0.49%,鲜鸡蛋下跌1.61%。粕类中豆粕微涨0.47%,菜粕微涨0.57%。

全国大部分地区鸡蛋报价持稳,局部续涨。销区中,北京、广州持稳,上海涨。蛋价涨幅明显放缓,市场走货一般,虽各环节存货较少,不过备货需求渐近尾声,恐跌心理出现,观望情绪加重,短期鸡蛋期价或以振荡为主。

淘汰鸡方面,节日备货渐近尾声,养殖户有高价提前淘汰的心理,但屠宰场提价收购意愿不强,短期价格或趋于调整。白羽肉鸡方面,终端需求不振,鸡肉产品持续量价齐跌,屠宰场库存消化缓慢,收购意愿较低。此外,部分屠宰场开工受限,不利于鸡价上涨。不过,当前毛鸡量仍不多,鸡价短期或延续弱势振荡。

同时,全国外三元生猪价格大部分稳中有跌,局部上涨。近期部分地区多发猪口蹄疫,养殖户担心疫情加重,提前出栏,生猪供应增加,屠宰企业开始压价,短期猪价振荡下跌。但随着气温逐渐下降,需求量增加,后市猪价仍有支撑。

总之,短期来看,各环节存货不多,但双节备货也已过半,需求量渐渐减少,蛋价上涨动能减弱。预计9月上旬双节备货高峰结束后,蛋价或出现一定程度的回调。中期来看,受上半年补栏大幅缩减影响,年内产能大概率呈下降态势,因此待季节性回调结束后,蛋价仍有较强支撑。

目前市场心理较为谨慎,观望情绪加大。1801合约短期反弹乏力,在春节备货及存栏炒作前,短期鸡蛋价格或延续弱势振荡。

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