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新能源系列再度火爆 警惕波段调整风险

2017-09-13 08:36:29   新华网

继周一集体大涨后,昨日新能源汽车产业链的相关股票强者恒强,持续活跃。部分个股开盘直接封死涨停板,例如和顺电气、盛弘股份、安凯客车等,也有部分尾盘打开涨停,例如西藏矿业、科泰电源、比亚迪等,而前期持续强势的部分锂电池概念股则大幅调整,例如华友钴业、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、先导智能等。

市场分析人士认为,我国新能源汽车产业将迎来长期利好,新能源板块有望成为成长股的风向标和龙头,不过由于短期涨幅过猛,不排除有波段调整的风险,调整过后新能源汽车仍会是下半年的主战场之一。

产业链整体躁动

在近日召开的2017年中国汽车产业发展(泰达)国际论坛上,工信部副部长辛国斌演讲透露,工信部已启动了停止生产销售传统能源汽车的相关研究,并将制订我国的时间表。光大证券认为,这是工信部首次透露国内禁售燃油车计划,进一步证明中国支持新能源汽车发展的态度没有改变,行业将长期向好。

受该事件刺激,9月11日新能源汽车产业链个股全线暴动;昨日相关个股继续活跃,完全不顾大盘疲软,涨声一片,赚钱效应十分明显。具体来看,行业龙头股表现强者恒强,充电桩板块的和顺电气、盛弘股份以及新能源汽车板块的安凯客车、奥特佳等均连续二个一字涨停,也有相当部分盘中涨停随后冲高回落,在尾盘打开涨停,例如西藏矿业、科泰电源、比亚迪、中科三环、江淮汽车、蓝海华腾、科士达、奥特迅等。

值得关注的是,前期持续强势的部分锂电池概念股则大幅调整,其中华友钴业昨日大跌8.17%,赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、先导智能、道氏技术、金银河等昨日均大跌超过6%。这些均是前期强势的明星股,今年以来的累计涨幅均超过100%,其中赣锋锂业今年涨幅达到249.49%。

一位证券行业人士认为,对这一热门板块也需要保持清醒,没有只涨不跌的股票,即使锂资源概念这些长线大牛股,但也有波段调整的时候。目前新能源汽车产业链个股短期涨幅过猛,不排除会短期震荡一下,但震荡之后仍然可以密切跟踪关注。

行业利好长期存在

今年以来,价值股、周期股、白马股轮流走红,成长股则表现不济,新能源板块的表现相对强势,使其成为成长股的风向标和龙头。不少券商认同,国家支持新能源汽车行业持续健康发展的政策导向没有改变,日前提出考虑制定禁售燃油车时间表,进一步彰显这一决心,因此未来新能源汽车行情将具有持续性。

华券证券表示,国际主要汽车产销国坚定新能源路线,推动各大传统整车企业向新能源转型,供给侧改善将进一步驱动消费需求。建议从弹性,供需关系,竞争格局,市场体量等角度优选细分产业链投资机会,建议关注新能源产业链细分领域优质龙头。

光大证券也认为,国家支持新能源汽车行业发展的决心已经十分明确,后续双积分政策或者补贴调整政策的发布都将基于这个原则出发。但由于行业整体产能过剩,受供需格局影响,产业链将发生汰弱留强的变化。推荐目前估值相对合理,且未来有望占有一定市场份额的上市公司。

浙商证券认为,我国新能源汽车产业链的发展将全面迎来长期利好。结合中短期产业发展趋势,未来3~5 年,相对看好纯电动乘用车与纯电动专用车(物流车等)的放量发展。上游锂、钴资源,以及三元动力锂电制造及配套产业环节,将持续受益。记者 钟恬

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