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期指轮涨后暂时“喘息”

2017-09-08 07:32:10   中国经济网

本周,中证500期指IC接棒上证50期指IH的强势,一度再创此轮反弹新高。而在银行、保险持续拖累的制约下,IH整体弱于大势。在权重指数持续走弱的影响下,IC随后亦出现冲高回落走势。

从基本面来看,近期市场预期重新进入到“稳态”区。经济层面看,8月PMI数据继续走强,官方数据录得年内次高点。市场预期的年中经济拐点仍未出现。后期8月通胀、工业、消费、投资及出口等数据进入到发布期,市场将根据所发布的数据进一步评估经济增长力度,并对四季度及明年开年经济走势展望进行调整。从一些高频数据看,目前经济维持偏强的可能性依然较高,因此指数难有大幅回落空间。而如果地产投资、工业生产、消费这些重要数据依旧表现不俗,市场对于未来经济预期进一步上调,指数的上行动能也将再次增加。

资金利率方面,9月以来银行间市场利率价格持续回落,央行自6月以来首次重启28天期逆回购操作,维稳跨季资金面的心态十分明显。不过考虑到9月银行同业存单到期量达2.33万亿,创历史新高;而监管方面对同业存单发行又采取进一步收紧措施。因此对于9月季度末的资金走势来看,部分时点资金面或仍有走高可能。但是,我们注意到8月R007价格已超过6月,而DR007价格在央行的维稳下并未大幅走高,表明资金面紧张更多体现在非银机构,或与去杠杆因素有关。由于今年的强监管影响已充分反映在目前的股价当中,所以后期只要不出现明显的流动性风险,股市走势也难以受资金价格波动而受大的利空影响。

从现货来看,近期资源周期品,大金融板块,中小创出现了有序轮动,特别是今年上半年调整明显的中小创类相关指数,例如创业板指在周四一度继续创出反弹新高。我们认为,一方面大蓝筹今年涨幅较大,虽然业绩确定性、成长性仍较好,但买入做多的性价比在减弱。而另一方面,中小创自年中开始,监管层有关兼并重组的政策出现放松,开始向上市公司倾斜,政策面已现转机。而在资金寻找业绩确定性投资品种的过程中,在“泥沙俱下”的中小创中寻找被错杀的优质个股,未来将获得比目前“人尽皆知”的白马股更可观的收益。从指数层面看,中小创部分个股的活跃给中证500期指IC及沪深300期指IF带来一定的支撑。

整体上,我们继续延续此前观点,一方面,近期处于金九银十旺季之中,周期品或处于盈利兑现期而不再是一个良好的做多介入时点。本周包括商品、IH均出现小幅回落走势。但另一方面在经济呈现韧性的情况下,预计大幅回调空间也不大。相对而言,我们继续看好IC的相对表现,但从技术面看整个股指期货市场或均有一定震荡整理需要。期指操作上避免追涨杀跌心态,短线或以区间思路或回调后谨慎做多思路对待。

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