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“哈维”刚退“艾玛”又来 飓风频袭石化概念迎风起舞

2017-09-06 07:41:45   中国经济网

近期,美国天气灾害不断,飓风“哈维”(Harvey)在美国德克萨斯州等地肆虐多日逐渐消退后,据报道,具有同等威力的飓风“艾玛”(Irma)又逼近佛州,当地正严阵以待。而此前“哈维”的袭击,“击中”了美国能源行业的中心地带,对美国石油产业产生了重大影响。

分析人士表示,“哈维”使得美国主要出口化工品受到影响,进一步影响到了对中国市场的供应,造成我国化工品价格出现了不同程度的上涨,但考虑到化工品价格已偏高,市场对后市价格上涨延续性存疑。不过化工行业相关股票则相对滞后于化工品上涨,可继续持有。

飓风突袭美国能源“心脏”地带

8月25日夜间,4级飓风“哈维”登陆美国,据报道,这是50多年来侵袭德克萨斯州的最强飓风。这场飓风席卷了德克萨斯州东南部及墨西哥湾。“哈维”登陆一个多星期后,其所引发的洪水等,已在美国造成至少50人死亡、超过100万人流离失所、共有600万人不同程度上受灾。据预估,将造成1500亿-1800亿美元的经济损失。

“哈维”的突袭,同时“击中”了美国能源行业的中心地带,并对美国石油产业产生了重大影响。“美国炼油厂主要集中在墨西哥湾附近,飓风天气使炼油厂被迫停止生产。从目前公布的情况来看,美国多家大型炼油厂都被迫停产两周左右,这使得该国成品油的供应出现了重大问题。”金石期货化工分析师黄李强对中国证券报记者表示。

除了对美国德克萨斯州炼厂产生冲击外,“哈维”也对全球石油和石油制品贸易造成了较大影响。

卓创资讯分析师朱光明表示,墨西哥湾西北部和北部港口也因“哈维”出现不同程度的关闭,大量的海上油轮无法泊港卸船,海上原油曾一度达到1700万桶,进口大受影响。此外,输往本地区的原油管道大部分关闭,加之进口受阻,炼厂在恢复部分产能之后面临无油可炼的尴尬境地,美国不得不临时释放了450万桶战略储备原油以供应炼厂炼油。另外,由于大量炼厂关闭,成品油产出受到较大影响,按照440万桶/天的损失产能来算,成品油每天降低的量在250万桶左右,成品油价格特别是汽油价格受供应短缺刺激,不断攀升。

通常情况下,飓风天气会刺激成品油价格大幅上涨,同时会提振原油价格。不过,目前原油市场特别是北美地区供给过剩,飓风天气虽然影响了原油需求,但由于供应相对充裕,因此影响较为有限。这造成的结果是,汽油价格因飓风天气大幅上涨,而原油价格所受影响则相对较小。

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