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两大因素推动恒生AH股 溢价指数创年内新高

2017-09-05 09:12:22   新华网

本周一,恒生指数震荡走低,全天下跌0.76%。而上证综指在横盘整固4个交易日后,本周一现震荡攀升趋势,全天上涨0.37%。两地主要指数小幅背离,也使恒生AH股溢价指数跳空高开,开盘便顺利突破130点,全天上涨2.74%,报收133.28,创下近一年以来的新高。

分析人士认为,近期A股大盘蓝筹持续走高,而恒指却出现小幅回调,是AH股溢价指数持续走高的因素之一。此外,人民币升值、港元贬值,同样进一步提升了相同公司AH股股价的溢价率。

据东方财富Choice统计,共有96只个股同时在A股和H股上市。同公司的A股和H股股价波动不同,产生的折溢价情况,则是恒生AH股溢价指数的衡量指标。

从历史数据来看,AH股溢价指数多在110至120区间内波动。近期,该指数明显加快了上升的步伐。昨日,恒生AH股溢价指数以133.28收盘,这意味着A股股价平均比对应的H股高约33%。

而细化至个股溢价情况来看,Choice数据显示,本周一收盘,仅两只个股的A股价格低于H股价格。而溢价率最高的洛阳玻璃,A股股价为25.4元,其H股股价折算为人民币后约为3.73元,溢价率约达580%。

市场人士表示,恒生AH股溢价指数由低走高,通常说明同期A股上涨幅度远大于H股涨幅。但值得注意的是,虽然今年3月下旬上证综指的表现却弱于恒生指数,但该指数依然持续走高。

恒生AH股溢价指数在3月下旬触及113.19低点后持续走高,累计上涨16.37%。在此区间内,恒生指数稳中走高,累计上涨13.21%;而上证综指却在今年4月经历了深度回调后才持续走高,累计仅上涨3.7%。

该人士认为,两个因素带动AH股溢价指数持续走高。首先,从96只个股的行业和市值来看,多数为A股的大盘股。其中,金融、基建和周期板块个股占比较多。而回顾上证综指3月至今的表现,周期股和金融蓝筹均未出现明显回调,反而震荡上行,给AH股溢价率形成有力支撑。

此外,随着沪指站稳3300点后,两市成交额明显回升,大盘股也稳中走高,但恒指近日却稍显疲软。短期内,预计这一溢价趋势或将进一步加大。

汇率也是其中一个影响因素。今年以来,曾和美元齐步走的港元出现持续贬值。主要因美元不断加息,而港元市场利率却因前期积累的流动性而保持低位,使两者形成了息差。

另一方面,今年以来人民币却持续升值,这使今年5月底以来人民币对港元迅速走高。截至周一下午5点06分,人民币和港元汇率已升至1.1997,预计这也将进一步扩大AH股之间的价差。

不过,市场人士也向记者表示,近年来该指数波动渐趋平缓,主要因为沪股通和深股通这类通道拉近了A股和港股之间的“距离”。两地投资渠道的多样化,使资金迅速流向性价比更高的市场。AH股溢价率越高,资金流速越快,也会越快填补两地股价差价,使溢价率回归正常水平。记者 史庭琦

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