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反弹窗口仍在 继续关注消费和金融

2017-09-04 07:35:52   中国经济网

首先,金融板块下,银行股最具估值优势,抑制走势的因素在缓解。目前银行板块整体市盈率在7.3倍左右、市净率在1.03倍左右,横向比在所有行业板块中最低,纵向比也处于历史相对低位。此前压制银行股表现的主要是金融监管、坏账方面因素。目前看,两个因素都有所缓解,金融监管方面同业业务、理财业务目前均稳步收缩,监管部门也强调了严守不发生系统性金融风险的底线;坏账方面,中报显示行业关注类贷款余额和占比环比双降。在企业盈利回升的大背景下,银行坏账风险得到释放。金融板块下的券商股方面,行业利润降幅在收窄,从历史经验看,券商股在上涨趋势中往往展现出较好的弹性,在震荡行情中则会跟随市场的反弹在后半段往往有较好的表现。

其次,以白酒、白色家电为代表的消费白马业绩出众,并有望受益于估值切换、A股国际化。具体看,白酒板块中报业绩超过市场预期。受益于消费升级、中高端产品占比提升,带动毛利率进一步走高;白色家电板块上半年利润同比增加26%,目前整体的市盈率不到18倍,盈利与估值具有很好的匹配度。通常情况下,在三季报前后上市公司就开始反映下一年业绩增长预期,届时盈利增速、稳定性均佳的消费白马股最有望受益于市场估值切换。另外,海外机构资金在中国市场最为青睐消费白马,在A股国际化过程中,消费板块受益最大。

周期股的活跃表现主要受益于业绩增长。上周,国企改革也再有重要动作,国资委宣布中国国电集团公司与神华集团有限责任公司实施联合重组,合并重组为国家能源投资集团。在中报业绩优秀、国企改革红利释放的影响下,煤炭、钢铁、有色板块成为了当周上涨幅度最大的三个板块。由于目前周期产品需求面尚未大幅回暖,且持续涨价引起了行业协会等方面的重点关注,涨价因素对周期股的支持力度可能会逐渐减弱。若相关行业内出现重要企业的改革、重组,有望刺激股价表现。

另外,随着市场上涨,相关主题投资也开始回温。上周,受苹果公司即将发布新产品消息影响,苹果产业链及新机型可能涉及的无线充电、AR等技术的相关主题公司股价走强。次新股、房屋租赁等主题表现也较为活跃。中报公布完毕,高送转填权预期升温,相关概念股也出现了活跃的迹象。但投资者在参与主题投资时还是要重点考虑相关公司的基本面情况,目前市场风格依然是重盈利、重估值,缺乏业绩支持的公司仍需谨慎对待。

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