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ICO面临较大不确定性 相关个股承压

2017-09-04 07:16:07   中国经济网

每经记者 郑步春

上周A股冲高震荡,沪综指全周累计涨1.07%至3367.12点,深综指周涨2.42%至1956.35点。此外,中小板、创业板两综指分别涨2.16%、3.03%。

由全周情况看,资源股、次新股强势,创业板相对稍强,沪市一些权重股表现稍弱,特别是银行股、保险股。券商股上周虽然仍保持强势,但进一步上冲动能似不太足。

上周五盘后证监会发布了新一批IPO核准情况,数量环比增1家达到8家。这个分寸掌握得较好,给次新股炒作之风提出了警示,同时又显得比较温和,对板块以及大盘的影响均属于中性。

个人感觉,本周次新股大概率会按原先节奏走,但主力操盘风格将进一步分化,部分个股可能涨得较好,但积累涨幅较大的次新股容易冲高回落。投资者对次新板块可以跟风,但应始终记得机会与风险并存。在创业板方面,既然并购重组管得已不如以前那么紧,那么下行空间基本已被封堵,投资者可趁回调时择优质品种介入。

ICO监管目前面临较大不确定性。有报道称,原先定于9月2日召开的一个区块链盛会被有关部门叫停。这条消息可能会对区块链个股构成一定冲击,但对大盘或许会有些利好。以A股的立场来说,ICO某种程度上也可以看成是一个潜在的资金分流渠道。

本周市场可能维持相对强势,但上涨过快不太可能,技术面及政策面对此均有限制。

在技术面上,前几天股指冲破了本轮行情通道的上轨,但由量能看明显不是有效突破,拉回通道内再度确认是大概率事件。此外,9月A股迎来解禁高峰,限售股数量全年最多,解禁市值仅次于今年2月和12月,为年内第三高。

由政策面看,在未来一个多月时间内,管理层最乐见的必然是“股市平稳或平稳中有所上涨”,任何大涨大跌都可能招来些隐性干预。

由经验来看,9月份部分商业银行头寸可能会比较紧,但我觉得不太可能对股市、债市造成过大冲击。由近期人民币升值情况看,未来降准的概率实际上已有所增加。上周五美国公布的8月非农就业数据不太理想,这进一步降低了美联储年内再次加息的可能,该因素使得我国货币政策的外部压力减轻,客观上有利于降准的实施。

笔者已在微信平台开辟专栏,读者可以在每周日至周四晚间通过微信直接查看笔者的最新观点,详情请关注“每经投资宝”微信公众号。

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