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南北资金流向逆转 银行AH比价显著提升

2017-09-01 08:16:48   中国经济网

不论是从沪港通开通以来,还是从今年以来的数据来看,沪港通中的港股通(南向)资金均远高于沪港通(北向)资金,显示出内地资金积极投资港股,寻找投资机会,而来自香港的资金对于内地市场则相对观望态势浓厚。然而从最近三个月开始,沪港通的南北资金流向出现扭转。南向资金大幅减少,甚至在最近一周转为净流出,而北向资金净流入明显增加。

分析人士指出,内地股市近期表现向好,人民币升值导致相关资产更受青睐等均是北上资金开始活跃的主要原因。衡量两地价差的恒生AH溢价指数日前也创下超过一年以来的新高,其中银行板块的AH比价显著扩大,A股中的银行等板块更成为了北上资金的掘金地。

呈现南冷北热现象

自沪港通开通以来,港股通(南向)资金净流入额为4370.29亿元,而同期沪股通(北向)资金净流入额仅为1789.84亿元,金额仅为前者的41%。如果统计最近6个月的表现,这种趋势依旧持续。最近6个月以来,沪港通中的港股通(南向)资金净流入额为807.55亿元,而同期沪股通(北向)资金净流入额仅为336.58亿元,仅为前者的40%,比例也与沪港通开通以来几乎一致。

然而最近三个月以来,这种形势开始发生微妙的变化,沪港通中的北上资金开始大幅增加,而南下资金开始减少。最近3个月以来,沪港通中的港股通(南向)资金净流入额为253.23亿元,而同期沪股通(北向)资金净流入额为262.69亿元,北向资金已经开始高过南向资金。

而在最近一个月,特别是最近一周,这种逆转的趋势得到进一步强化。最近一个月以来,沪港通中的港股通(南向)资金净流入额仅为6.82亿元,而同期沪股通(北向)资金净流入额高达137.69亿元,前者仅为后者的4.9%。最近一周以来,沪港通中的港股通(南向)甚至出现了9100万元的资金净流出,而同期沪股通(北向)资金净流入额高达60.72亿元,如果按天数计算平均值,表现远好于8月前三周。可见资金北上的势头越来越强烈。

深港通中的港股通和深股通表现与沪港通较为类似,均在最近三个月附近开始出现了南北向资金开始逆转的趋势。此前较为活跃的南下资金开始逐步“熄火”和观望,而北上资金开始逐步增多。

银行股成“香饽饽”

市场分析师表示,部分大型银行A股迎来价值重估,股价持续强于H股。这些此前AH比价相对较低的银行股成为推动恒生AH溢价指数走强的主力,也成为北上资金青睐的重点领域。

数据显示,最近一年多以来,AH溢价指数持续波动。从2016年5月开始,受A股市场持续低位徘徊以及港股走牛的影响,AH溢价指数一路走低,截至2017年3月21日,AH溢价指数一度跌至116.32点的低位,创下2014年12月12日以来新低。从当时的个股情况来看,银行、保险等板块的多只股票AH溢价程度均非常低,比价接近于1甚至低于1。业内分析师表示,在A股表现强于港股的背景下,AH溢价指数走强,主要原因是A股大型银行和部分保险股出现价值重估,股价抬升,导致其AH比价大幅攀升,最终影响到AH溢价指数的整体表现。

而对于未来南向资金,瑞银证券中国首席策略分析师高挺指出,保险资金将持续成为南向交易的主力。未来那些股息收益率高或AH股价差大,以及香港市场的稀缺标的会更多地受到内地投资者的青睐。

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