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8月强势收官 行情到底有多强

2017-09-01 07:41:12   中国经济网

昨天是8月最后一个交易日、8月行情的收官之战。盘中,虽然沪指一度大跌超过20点,但下午行情又峰回路转,沪指从低位逐渐回升,最终仅下跌2.82点,以3360.81点报收。另外,深市各类指数均以红盘报收。

本周,大盘在周一强势上行之后,已经连续三个交易日窄幅整理。虽然窄幅震荡了几天,但我个人认为,当前行情其实还是很强的,那到底有多强呢?

首先,简单回顾一下昨天的盘面。早上开盘之后,市场表现得比较谨慎,指数处于小幅调整状态。但10点10分过后,大盘出现一波跳水,拖累指数的依然是银行股。如工商银行、建设银行和中国银行当时就一度下跌超过2% ,农业银行跌幅近3%。

昨天四大行同时披露了上半年业绩。在昨天“道达号(微信号:daoda1997)”的早评文章中,达哥也已经给大家提示过,其实四大行上半年业绩是非常不错的,主要指标都是近几年最好的。那么,为什么昨天早上四大行还会跳水?

达哥注意到,当时业界对四大行的中报,主要关注点集中在前十大股东名单出现了变化,也就是安邦保险对四大行进行了减持。正是由于安邦保险套现银行股的消息发酵,使得银行股盘中再次出现了下跌。但我想说的是,安邦减持银行股,其实发生在第二季度,时间是截至6月30日,而二季度银行股普遍都表现强势。只不过,安邦减持的消息,昨天才通过中报披露出来而已。我认为,这一因素经过一两天的消化之后,逐渐就会被市场淡化。

经过上午的调整,昨天下午大盘温和回升,各类热点再次升温。比如钢铁、有色等资源股昨天表现很强。另外,前几天提到的券商股,昨天全线飘红,尤其是次新券商股走势更强。

另外,虽然昨天指数依然是窄幅震荡,沪指甚至还是略有下跌,但是多空较量的天平,却开始向多方倾斜。昨天,沪市700多只个股上涨,490多只个股下跌;深市则有1100多只个股上涨,只有600多只个股下跌。

在我看来,本周大盘连续三个交易日窄幅整理,成交维持在相对活跃的水平,表明市场趋势是比较强的。到底有多强,如果只是盘面描述,或许不太直观,那么达哥就说说各大指数的月线情况,大家看了之后就清楚了。

昨天刚好是8月最后一个交易日,各大指数都是收月线,所以达哥就说说各大指数的月K线。

首先,沪指8月累计上涨2.68%,月线显示走出三连阳走势,创下近19个月来的新高。而沪指月线的成交量也是逐月递增,这种状态配合得非常好。

再说沪深300指数的月线,已经四连阳了,创下26个月来的收盘新高,典型的慢牛走势已经形成。

第三个是代表“漂亮50”的上证50指数月线,同样是四连阳,典型的多头排列,这也是各类指数中表现最强的。

第四是中小板指数月线,三连阳之后,中小板指数逐渐在从低迷中复苏,成交量也在逐渐放大。

最后一个则是创业板指数的月线,这是几大分类指数中表现最弱的,但放量最为明显。从月线看,初步有放量筑底的迹象。

对这几大指数的月线走势,我相信大家都会有这样的认识,A股市场从2015年6月见顶之后,经过两年多时间的持续调整之后,市场已经逐渐从熊市中慢慢复苏过来。行情依然是结构新行情,上证50、沪深300是反弹的先头部队,中小板紧随其后,创业板相对要弱一些。但总体而言,既然月线级别的行情已经走出来了,那么对于未来行情的方向,也没有什么好担忧的。

短期来看,沪指经过三个交易日的窄幅整理,目前指数回到了五日均线附近,那么后市依然可以保持相对乐观。今天就是新的一个月开始,但愿能够迎来一个不错的9月行情。

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