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A股有望打破存量博弈格局

2017-09-01 07:26:19   中国经济网

本周的前4个交易日,大盘成功站稳3300。指数方面,上证综指4个交易日累计上涨了0.99%,深证成指则累计上涨了1.48%,上证50相对弱势,4个交易日累计上涨了0.31%,沪深300累计上涨了0.69%,中小板指累计上涨了1.81%,创业板指最为强势,累计上涨了2.01%。从主要指数表现来看,沪指已经成功站稳了3300点这一重要心理关口,向上攀升的空间已经被打开。

市场板块方面,次新股本周继续表现强势,本周二,次新股连续飙涨,逾20股涨停。本周三,次新股盘中飙升,一度逾40股涨停,尾盘遭遇资金强势砸盘,最终有逾30股涨停板被撬开。然而到了本周四,金石资源、智能自控、英联股份、朗新科技等逾20只次新股涨停,显示这一板块仍然是目前资金最为关注的热点。

流动性方面,广发证券研究显示,上周A股市场资金净流入66.3亿元。其中,一级市场IPO融资43亿元;产业资本上周重要股东净增持0.6亿元,二级市场上,上周合计流入资金108.7亿元,其中,机构投资者资金流入50.9亿元,杠杆资金流入66.9亿元,沪深港股通资金流入36.6亿元,交易费45.8亿元。投资者情绪方面,上周融资交易占比下降0.08%,日度换手率下降0.02%,股指期货多/空比例上升0.17%,机构合计挂单卖出273.6亿元。

从上周五到本周四,A股市场一个最重要的变化就是沪指成功站上了3300点。3300点这个位置之所以重要,是因为它正是2016年指数熔断机制实施大盘跌破的点位。大盘成功放量站上3300点,意味着熔断对市场带来的负面影响已经基本消失,整个A股市场的风险偏好已经有了明显的提高,投资者的信心、参与市场的热情也都有了明显的提升。对于投资者而言,近一段时间以来,金融股叠加次新行情的先行活跃将有可能形成“牛市映射”,打破A股市场很长一段时间来的存量博弈格局,吸引更多的增量资金进场。对于机构而言,也有利于打破原来的抱团取暖、风险偏好较低的格局,开始较为积极主动地配置各类股票资产。

实际上,一些相关的数据就可以折射这种风险偏好的变化。从杠杆资金规模来看,截至8月30日,A股融资融券余额为9401.24亿元,突破9400亿元,创四个半月新高。自今年7月底以来,两融余额规模节节攀升,从9000亿元上升至9400亿元。另一方面,从沪港通、深港通的数据来看,8月份以来,北向的资金规模也出现了显著提升,仅仅8月份22个交易日累计净流入资金规模就达到了137.69亿元。这些数据表明,A股市场很可能正在逐渐打破原先存量博弈的格局,越来越多的增量资金很可能在未来一段时间进入A股市场。

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