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艾诚对话微软洪小文:资本请慎重,AI还是个小学生!

2017-08-30 13:51:22   中国经济网

和已经成为华人商业领袖的师兄李开复不一样,洪小文的言行举止,无时不刻不在提醒人们,他依然是一名科学家。虽然,他所效力的公司,是一个叫做微软的商业帝国。

正因此,在回答《艾问人物》提出的,关于当下最为火热的人工智能的问题时,洪小文的答案谨慎得让那些对未来充满憧憬的人们过于失望了。他们期待的,热播美剧《西部世界》里那种上帝视角的旅行,有生之年都难以出现。

AI能否取代人类?

在最近几年间,被广为人知的,是微软在人工智能领域“破釜沉舟”般的决心:在去年10月份成立的人工智能事业部里,微软已经将相关研究、产品等部门都整合进入了这一体系。这其中,就包括曾经被称为“世界上最热的实验室”的微软亚洲研究院。洪小文,正是这个研究院的院长。

“当你真正了解技术,就不会把技术太当回事,大家有时候把它吹的太过分了。”典型的科学家式的回答,给“AI迷”们迎面泼盆冷水。

在洪小文看来,“毫无疑问,人还最聪明的。”在可预期的未来,洪小文并不认为人工智能有比人聪明的可能性,从更长远的时间线看,“将来能够取代人类的,也不会是进化后的人工智能,而只会是某一种未知的其他生物。”

这正是科学家和普通人的差别,普通人习惯于对未知的事物充满美好的幻想,而科学家会对它们保持敬畏。比如,横亘在人工智能和数学运算之间,还有着科学家们至今无法解释的东西——人类的意识。

“人类很多了不起的想法,都是在当事人没有直接想到这个问题的时候,却得到了解答。”一个科学史上最有名的故事,高中化学老师早已告诉过我们:德国化学家凯库勒悟出苯分子环状结构的经过,就是因为他梦见了一只咬着自己尾巴的蛇。这种灵感迸发的时候,人工智能或许永远无法进行模拟,因为人是会神情恍惚的,会不清醒的,而计算机,永远不会算错。“有人说没关系,我让计算机故意算错,但那不是人的意识,人的意识是个很奇怪的东西,人工智能学不来。”

对于这一点的阐述,计算机的运算甚至远远比不过小说家们的描绘。金庸小说中,张三丰教张无忌太极剑法,张无忌说他看懂了七成,张三丰再教第二遍,张无忌却只看懂五成,教第三遍的时候,完全看不懂了,张三丰说:“那你学会了。”

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