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中国联通应由港股带头上涨

2017-08-29 09:41:43   中国经济网

券商股强势崛起,混合所有制改革龙头联通偃旗息鼓。这并不是说联通未来就没有题材了,而是联通A股无法带动联通港股上涨,联通港股的上涨,必须要有实质性的利好政策,现有的利好很难推动联通成为股市上涨的龙头。

联通A股和港股的关系,港股就像是一个真人,而A股就像是通过手机拍摄的照片,如果本人变美了,那么照片也一定会变美,但如果是照片变美了,则有可能是使用了美图秀秀。那么问题来了,那些让A股投资者兴奋不已的混合所有制利好,在港股投资者眼中似乎并不感冒,原因是香港投资者并没看到联通能够因此变得更有价值的实质。

在香港投资者眼中,上市公司的股价应该是这样计算的,我持有一家公司,它每年能给我多少现金分红?我是把钱买入股票收益率更高,还是买入货币市场基金收益率更高?于是,想要推动联通港股股价上涨,最直接的办法是让香港投资者确信,联通未来将能进行持续大金额的现金分红,而且还能保持下去,这是鼓励香港投资者给出联通更高估值的根本办法。

但是看看联通的混合所有制改革方案,很显然更加迎合A股投资者的胃口,引入大佬股东,业绩承诺式的股权激励,但这些方案在香港投资者看来并没有什么好处,于是在A股联通两天涨停的时候,港股联通开始悄悄走弱。

为什么说这两个方案对香港投资者缺乏吸引力?因为联通增发新股,必然的结果就是股本扩大,利润稀释,投资者能够得到的现金分红将会减少。至于员工股权激励方案,过低的行权价格本身就代表着公司管理层对于未来的股价缺乏信心,如果管理层有信心联通未来的股价能够上涨到15元,那么将行权价定在10元又何妨?不到4元的行权价代表什么?代表着联通管理层并不认为未来联通股价能有太高的上涨空间,于是才有了5折的行权价。如果员工股权激励计划定在10元行权,就算激励100亿股又何妨,如果这100亿股期权都能行权,那就代表着现在所有的投资者都能赚钱,谁会反对这个方案呢?

联通A股能不能独立联通港股单独上涨?肯定是不行的。现在有沪港通,如果A股上涨而港股不动,那么必然会有机构投资者卖出联通A股同时买入联通港股进行套利交易,这就会导致做多资金将要面对几乎全部的联通A股抛盘,这个难度是极大的。而且如果本人不能变得漂亮,仅仅依靠美图秀秀美化自己的照片并用于相亲,见面后也会见光死,这不是长远之计。

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