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棉纱短期弱势运行

2017-08-25 09:16:56   中国经济网

需求好转不敌成本下滑

受CotlookA指数走跌影响,国内储备棉抛售底价下调,成交率提高。储备棉底价的下调直接降低了棉纱的生产成本。

原料价格走跌

8月,美农报告将全球2017/2018年度棉花产量预估上调195万包,将消费量预估上调37万包,最终全球棉花期末库存增加136万包,至9009万包。本次美农报告对美国产量预估的调增出乎市场意料:将2017/2018年度美棉产量大幅上调155万包,一度导致ICE12月合约触发跌停限制。

美农报告公布后,CotlookA指数随之下行,从81.35美分/磅跌至77.4美分/磅,跌幅近4.86%。CotlookA指数走低,国内储备棉抛售底价下滑。本周,储备棉抛储底价为14423元/吨,持续三周下调,降幅达656元/吨。

储备棉价格下跌,成交率明显好转,由之前的40%一跃至80%上方。可见,储备棉价格低廉,提升了企业采购积极性。

另外,8月上旬,储备棉抛售延长政策正式公布,抛储将延长至9月最后一个工作日。9月共计21个交易日,按照目前每个交易日2.98万吨的挂牌量计算,将向市场增加供应约62万吨。新棉上市前,国内棉花价格将弱势运行。

下游走货顺畅

C32S纱线价格指数3月底4月初开始回落,直到8月中上旬,一直呈下跌走势。这主要源于下游消费疲弱和纺织原料成本下降。近日,棉纱消费好转,该指数才止跌企稳。截至本周,C32S纱线价格指数报收于23005元/吨,较上月同期下跌95元/吨,与上周同期持平;32支纯棉斜纹布价格指数报收于5.7元/米,较上月同期下跌1.04%,与上周同期持平。

据有关机构的统计数据,截至8月18日,棉纱企业开工率为57.2%,较前一周回升1.9个百分点;棉纱库存指数为28.7天,较前一周减少0.7天。

与此同时,织厂开工率和库存也有所好转,开工率为62.3%,较前一周提升1.1个百分点;坯布库存为27.6天,较前一周减少0.9天。棉纺织行业的PIM数据也显示,7月,棉纺织行业采购经理人指数中,新订单指数较6月明显回升,至40.9,环比增长3.79。

综上所述,金九银十旺季临近,下游走货好转,但鉴于成本下滑,棉纱价格难言上涨。

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