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狂欢后狂跌 黑色系期货跌幅超5%

2017-08-24 09:00:08   中国经济网

黑色系期货在连续几日的狂欢之后,突然乏力。8月23日早盘,黑色系期货暴跌,铁矿石跌5.9%,螺纹钢跌5.4%,热卷跌5.8%,一度触及跌停,硅铁、锰硅跌逾3%。在分析人士看来,前期涨幅太多加上监管的频频出手是黑色系普遍暴跌的一大原因,不过该分析人士指出,目前市场心态并没有改变,未来依旧看涨。

从盘面表现来看,8月23日商品期货市场收盘涨跌互现,黑色系弱势未改,热卷、硅铁、锰硅早盘一度跌停,焦炭午后翻红并刷新前高,热卷、锰硅收跌逾4%,铁矿石、螺纹钢跌近4%;化工品、有色金属涨跌不一,PVC、玻璃、沪铝、沪锌跌超1%,聚丙烯、沪铅涨超1%。外盘表现稳定,截至记者发稿时,LEM铜涨0.14%,基本保持稳定,LEM锌涨0.58%,呈小幅度上涨趋势,涨幅放缓。

此前,商品期货黑色系一直处于狂飙状态,截至8月22日下午收盘,硅铁大涨5.66%,铁矿石、焦炭涨逾4%。8月21日,黑色系同样表现强劲,当日硅铁收盘封涨停板,铁矿石收涨6.6%,螺纹钢收涨逾3%。

对于此次暴跌现象,生意社钢铁分析师何杭生表示,与监管近期频频出手有一定关系。由于之前涨价过快过高,使得证监会、银监会对金融衍生品市场实施政策,例如铁矿石限制手术,提高保证金比例,提高手续费等,来抑制价格过快过高上涨;此外,中钢协也发声说市场应回归理性上涨,且钢市供应依旧增长,基本面不足以支撑价格快速上涨。

据悉,中钢协在8月22日刊发报告称,7月,宏观经济运行平稳,受去产能、环保等政策影响,市场预期持续升高,钢材价格呈明显上升走势,钢铁生产保持高水平。市场需求基本平稳,后期钢材价格难以大幅上涨,将呈现波动运行态势。

何杭生表示,从基本面上也支撑黑色系的暂时下跌。“在连续大涨行情过后,虽然利润普遍增加回升,但是下游终端接受程度日渐减弱,成交放缓。导致市场多头开始获利平仓,大量卖出,促使价格下跌;此外,目前价格的涨势已经从原料端传导至下游终端,但涨势日渐收缩,使得下游在采购上愈发谨慎,甚至暂停采购,一单一议,导致市场货源在原本不宽裕的供应下,出现缓解态势,库存出现堆积,那么价格也就会暂时下跌。”何杭生说道。

对于未来走势,何杭生认为,市场心态并没有改变,依旧还是看涨为主,现在仅仅是回吐利润,缓解市场涨价压力而已。此外,在严格的环保政策大背景下,企业和政府纷纷响应,全国各地已有多家钢铁检修关停,钢铁的供给弹性仍弱于需求弹性,钢铁产业链基本面稳健,由此看来钢价仍有上涨空间。

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