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次贷危机回顾及美国楼市现状:当时无奈卖房 现在刚需买房

2017-08-24 07:12:34   中国经济网

居外网中国业务总监、美国持牌经纪人 吴光慧(Tracy Wu)

2008年美国正处在次贷危机期间,当时我刚入行美国房地产业,作为一个亲身经历、身在其中的房产业者,在如今各方纷纷回顾次贷危机之际,我很愿意分享我当时的所见所闻及深刻感受和体会,作为中国买家、投资者的参考、借鉴。

●危机从蓝领区扩展到富人区

受次贷危机重创的地区大多数是一些产业较单一的地区,如拉斯维加斯和佛罗里达部分地区。当时,这些地区的房价一度跌至2005年高峰期1/5的水平。

价格跌落首先从蓝领阶层聚集的生活区开始,再慢慢扩散到那些开发过剩的新区。后期,被一般意义上认为是富人区的地方也受到波及,譬如洛杉矶的比华利山庄。

当时,有明星甩卖自己的豪宅,那些庭院深深蒙着面纱的豪宅,曾经买家都需要预约、陪同才能前往看房,且需事先调查买家经济实力。彼时,竟然家家门外树起了“对外开放,随时看房”的标志牌。

美国政府在次贷危机后采取了一系列有力度的措施防范问题再度发生。

1.从供应上,在房屋的建造许可(Building permit)上严加管控。

2.从需求上,收紧了房贷,推出了越来越严格的贷款条件。

3.从房价的评估上,规定使用第三方,银行或任何权益方不可以指定和影响的房屋估价师。

●忠告:在成熟地区选房,理性贷款

综上,我对中国买家有两点忠告:

第一,房产选择。要选择供求较平衡的成熟社区,避开产业单一的城市及地区。买房出租的投资客,要多研究该地区的出租情况,注重租客的多元性。如果经济动荡,第一批被影响的会是蓝领工人,失业退租、付不起租金的情况会很快发生。在选择租客的时候,可用三分之一这个标准衡量租客支付能力,即房租为租客全家收入的1/3。建议由专业的物管托管公司管理投资房和租客。

第二,支付。如果经济萧条再次来临,手上持有现金是王道。有能力及符合贷款条件的买家,鼓励利用杠杆,但要了解贷款条例。一般中国买家会选择3、5、7年固定利率之后成为浮动利率。在次贷危机爆发时,浮动利率大幅调高,让美国当地的屋主在失业后无法供贷。所以,要结合自己的经济能力,理智选择适合自己的贷款产品,首付也尽可能多付一些。最后是租金收入可抵扣每月房贷加上所有其他持有成本,如房产税、保险和社区费;要有一定的可调动现金储备在海外账户,万一房贷和租金不能持平,可以补上。

●大部分美国房屋价格并未完全复苏

根据个人观察和数据报告,我认为目前美国楼市还不至于已形成泡沫。近几年房价上升是因为供应短缺,短缺的原因在于:1.开发商和政府谨慎开发;2. Baby boomer(婴儿潮)这一代有很强的经济实力,虽然退休人士、空巢人士需要换小面积房屋,但很少有人愿意抛售自己原本持有的自住房。

在需求这方面,除了美国本土的Baby boomer一代的买房需求,另外,Millennials(千禧一代)都已到适婚组建家庭的年龄,成了那些争先恐后的买家。这些都是刚需。再加上外国买家,特别是来自中国的新移民、留学和工作所产生的需求也算是一种刚需。

最后,我也注意到媒体援引一些大公司的数据,说美国房价现在又创历史新高,但是根据美国主要房地产平台Trulia近期的一份研究报告,美国的房价现在变得很分化,不同地区房价自萧条中的复苏水平也不一样。从全美来看,只有三分之一的房屋的价格高过上一轮房价高峰。这就意味着,对投资者而言,投资的机会还是有的。

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