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关注期债中长期配置价值
2017-08-22 13:28:05 中国经济网
近期国债期货市场价格整体维持振荡疲弱走势。8月10日期债价格有所反弹,但随着债券收益率的触底回升,期债价格继续承压下滑。从当前的货币政策环境维持稳健和国债期货市场结构来看,建议投资者短期谨慎,中长期关注曲线和价差演绎带来的套利可能。从收益率角度而言,关注四季度整体趋势超预期乐观的可能。
货币政策仍然稳健
上周央行总计投放了7100亿元逆回购,实现净投放1100亿元。央行对上周二到期的2875亿元MLF进行了超额续作,规模达3995亿元。本周将有7500亿元逆回购到期,预计央行“削峰填谷”的操作特征仍将延续。从周一公开市场进行1800亿元逆回购,总计实现净回笼500亿元的情况来看,有所收紧的公开市场动作或暗示本周流动性压力将再次缓解。
从近期公布的经济数据来看,通胀数据偏低运行,投资情况不及预期,房地产价格回落,M2增速持续低位运行,无不暗示当前经济转型期维持货币政策环境稳定的必要性。因此,预计债券收益率波动仍将继续呈现区间格局。
收益率波动节奏的再梳理
整体节奏而言,预计收益率三季度偏低、四季度偏高的节奏或有所变化。虽然三季度收益率阶段性下行的特征会出现,但是三季度的整体节奏更偏向于振荡整理,没有较为明显的长期趋势。在8月一级市场大规模的发行压力之下,收益率的下行节奏也受到了限制。
此外,美联储12月加息预期持续处于50%以下,缩表预期下降。从同业存单纳入MPA考核时间点推移至明年一季度的政策转变来看,四季度除了季节性的资金压力外,并未有特别明显的利空因素浮现。因此,不排除四季度收益率仍有继续回落的可能。从当前至年底的市场环境变化来看,我们会更加注重阶段性流动性的变化,收益率整体区间振荡的特征也将延续。
图为五年期和十年期国债期货利差对比
基于当前货币政策的稳健特征和收益率区间波动的总体环境,建议投资者短期观望,中长期关注四季度是否存在超预期乐观的可能。同时,可以重点挖掘曲线和价差波动下的跨品种套利机会。
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