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去杠杆“三重奏”:方向与节拍并重

2017-08-22 13:26:20   新华网

去年至今,金融系统、地方政府、企业“三重奏”,合力演绎了一部经济去杠杆的改革乐曲。

“稳货币+强监管”,金融去杠杆成绩斐然。从央行的宏观调控之手到银监会的“三三四”检查,再至保监会的“保险姓保”纠偏,同业、表外、债市杠杆率大幅下降,机构资产负债结构日趋合理,“野蛮人”销声匿迹。

“疏+堵”结合,地方债务杠杆稳健处置。上半年PPP规范日益完善,创新债券品种陆续推出,中央对地方债实行终身问责并倒查责任,整治力度空前,发行总规模大幅缩水。

“市场化+法治化”,降低国企杠杆成为重中之重。作为“降杠杆”利器,债转股进程稳步推进,各类实施机构与70余家高负债企业已达成超万亿元市场化协议。

权威数据显示,供给侧结构性改革五大任务之一的去杠杆,在“三重奏”下显现成效:总杠杆率上升速度明显放缓,正趋于稳定;企业杠杆率开始下降;我国信贷/GDP缺口保持下降;金融体系内部杠杆率得到阶段性控制。

高企的杠杆源于多年积聚,去杠杆不可能一蹴而就,需系统性设计方案、主动作为。相关部委的种种动作、表态显示,下一阶段,去杠杆的措施还将继续组合安排、循序渐进、层层推开并落地扎根,逐步稳定和降低社会整体债务水平,防范经济金融系统性风险。

“稳货币+强监管” 金融去杠杆显效

2017年以来,随着稳健中性货币政策的落实以及监管逐步加强,金融体系开始主动调整业务、降低内部杠杆。

去杠杆需要合理的流动性环境。面对流动性波动中的“山谷”和“高峰”,上半年央行加强预调微调和预期管理,有机搭配公开市场操作工具组合,灵活掌控操作力度和开停节奏,靠“削峰”和“填谷”熨平了流动性波动。

与此同时,今年一季度,央行在宏观审慎评估(MPA)中正式纳入表外理财,以更全面地反映银行体系信用扩张状况。整治“三违反”、“三套利”、“四不当”等行为的银行业监管举措于4月初大张旗鼓推行。

一系列举措成效凸显。一位长期从事地方监管工作的人士告诉记者,从资产方看,地方法人银行的同业、表外业务、股权及其他投资等科目的规模大幅收缩,资金需求转向表内科目,贷款保持较快增长;从负债方看,前期扩张较快的中小银行同业负债规模明显下降,负债期限拉长。

机构因监管压力而调整表内外业务结构、降低杠杆率的微观动作也表现在了宏观数据上。

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