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美联储措辞微调 下半年政策搭配引猜想

2017-07-28 13:59:24   新华网

经过两天的讨论,美联储在北京时间27日凌晨公布的声明中大致维持了此前的政策承诺,但在一些措辞上作出了微调。相较于前次会议,美联储更明显地表达了对疲弱通胀水平的关注,同时将进行资产负债表正常化的启动时间由“今年”改为“相对较快”。

对于这一政策声明,业界有着不同看法,先加息还是先缩减资产负债表(下称“缩表”)?美元多空对决的走势也显露出投资者在这一问题上的迟疑:政策声明公布后,美元汇率快速下滑至一年多低位,随后小幅反弹。

  美联储微调措辞 分析师看出“鸽派”意味

根据美联储的政策声明,联邦基金利率目标区间仍将被维持在1%至1.25%的水平不变。美联储同时表示,如果美国经济增长符合预期,将很快开始“缩表”。声明还称,预计年通胀率将在短期内保持在低于2%的目标水平,经济前景的短期风险看来大致均衡,但联邦公开市场委员会成员正密切关注通胀发展。

在写给上证报记者的一封邮件中,Naroff经济咨询公司首席经济学家Joel Naroff分析称,更多迹象表明,“缩表”正在到来。他预计,美联储将在11月的政策会议上正式宣布这一决定。而9月会议不太可能宣布加息,除非“工资通胀”出现加速,正式加息时间将在12月。

嘉盛集团研究主管James Chen评论说,通胀方面,声明再度强调整体通胀“低于2%”,但删去了 “一定程度”的表述。而在“缩表”方面,跟上月断言的“今年”有所不同,新声明表示正常化将“相对较快”启动。整体来看,语义微妙调整加之货币政策不变对市场已然“鸽派”的政策展望基本无影响。很明显,此次声明不仅全无“鹰派”意外,对资产负债表正常化时间也无清晰确认。声明发布后,其“鸽派”意味立刻对美元和黄金产生影响。

交易数据显示,美股三大指数跟随政策声明走高,并齐步创下收盘新高,纽约期金价格触及6周高位。美元指数起初从日内高位94.2376下探93.4下方,北京时间27日午间还一度跌至93.15,为去年6月以来最低位,但此后美元指数小幅反弹。

北京时间18时,美元指数报93.5746,涨幅0.2%。纽约近月期金价格报每盎司1261.1美元,涨幅0.94%。同一时间段,英国及德国股市小幅下滑,法国CAC40指数上扬0.4%。而当日稍早收盘的亚太市场主要股指普遍上扬。

政策搭配引猜想 美元短期或延续弱势

尽管美元指数小幅反弹,美联储下半年政策搭配的不确定性依旧被业内人士视作美元面临的阻碍。

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