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中国有能力跨越“中等收入陷阱”

2017-07-13 18:24:41   

【当前经济形势怎么看】

日前,摩根士丹利研究部门的报告看多中国经济转型升级,认为中国有能力回避金融冲击,走出“中等收入陷阱”。这一题为《我们为何看好中国》的中国经济蓝皮书保守预测,中国人均GDP将在未来10年内从8100美元达到12900美元,于2027年步入高收入国家行列。

中国处在中等收入标准的什么位置

谈论中国能不能跨越“中等收入陷阱”,首先要弄清楚中国处在中等收入标准的什么位置。

2014年,世界银行以人均GDP为标准对各国经济发展水平进行了分组:人均GDP低于1045美元为低收入国家;1045至4125美元为中等偏下收入国家;4126至12735美元为中等偏上收入国家;高于12736美元为高收入国家。

按照国家统计局公布的数据,2016年,我国人均GDP为53980元人民币,换算成美元标准,我国人均GDP仍然处于8000美元的中等偏上水平。

“在国内理论界,有人说中国没有‘陷阱’,也有人认为中国处在‘中等收入陷阱’边缘,还有一种说法是中国正处于‘中等收入陷阱’的困境中。”但在中国宏观经济研究院原副院长马晓河看来,中国当前正处于“中等收入”的中间区域。

全国性的数据描述了整体,区域性的分析会凸显结构性特征。清华大学国情研究院院长胡鞍钢通过分析我国各地的经济数据发现,其实我国部分沿海省市已率先跨越“中等收入陷阱”。

胡鞍钢拿出的数据显示,天津、北京、上海、江苏的人均GDP均超过高收入门槛,浙江、内蒙古、福建、广东、辽宁、山东等地人均GDP也已超过了1万美元。这些地区常住人口占全国总人口比重的37.1%,相当于欧盟总人口,是美国总人口的1.64倍。

“可以预见,沿海地区将带动其他地区进入高收入阶段,如同改革开放之初这些地区率先对外开放、经济起飞,进而带动整个中国全面开放、全面起飞一样。”胡鞍钢说。

跨越“中等收入陷阱”有路可循吗

作为世界上最大的中等收入国家,中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”是在发展过程中必须迈过的一道坎儿。

从中等收入国家进入高收入国家俱乐部,并非轻而易举。“中等收入陷阱”概念由世界银行提出:一个国家从低收入阶段进入中等收入阶段后,经济长期徘徊在中等收入区间,普遍表现为经济的持续减速或保持缓慢增长。

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