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五大因素助推高速增长——解读上半年进出口数据

2017-07-13 18:17:54   新华网

新华社北京7月13日电 题:五大因素助推高速增长——解读上半年进出口数据

新华社记者 林晖

同比增长19.6%——2017年上半年我国外贸发展交出靓丽“成绩单”。这个数字不仅延续了去年下半年以来进出口回稳向好态势,也创下了2011年下半年以来的半年度同比最高增速。

业内专家认为,上半年外贸高速成长,与五大因素密不可分。

外部需求回暖带动出口数量增加。“2017年上半年,全球经济温和复苏,带动出口数量增加,对出口总值的增长贡献显著。”中国贸促会研究院国际投资研究部主任刘英奎认为,上半年以来世界经济增长回稳向暖态势明显,国际市场需求趋旺,助推我国出口数量增加8.9%。

国内经济稳中向好带动进口量持续增加。今年上半年,国内经济继续稳中向好,6月份我国制造业PMI为51.7,连续11个月在景气区间。国内经济稳中向好刺激进口需求增加,上半年我国进口数量总体增加11.6%。

大宗商品价格上涨助推进出口增长。海关总署新闻发言人黄颂平介绍,受国际大宗商品价格上涨影响,上半年我国铁矿砂进口均价上涨55%,原油上涨47.9%,铜上涨29.5%,煤炭上涨86.3%,带动我国进口价格总体上涨12.7%。与此同时,进口价格上涨通过国内生产传导到出口环节,推动出口价格上涨5.6%。

外贸稳增长政策措施效应持续显现。“上半年以来,我国大力推进‘一带一路’建设,市场开放和贸易促进力度不断加大,给中国外贸带来多项利好。”刘英奎表示,各项外贸稳增长政策措施效应持续显现,对上半年外贸进出口回稳向好起到了重要推动作用。

去年同期基数较低。去年上半年是近年来我国外贸发展的“低点”,进出口总值仅为10.99万亿元,为2011年以来的同期最低值,较低的基数相对“抬高”了今年上半年的同比增长速度。

亮眼的增速之外,我国外贸结构和质量效益也出现可喜变化。

观察上半年外贸数据可以发现,一般贸易进出口占我国外贸总值的56.7%,较去年同期再提升0.4个百分点,贸易方式更加合理。与此同时,进出口市场更趋多元,除欧美日等传统市场外,俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、波兰、孟加拉国等“一带一路”沿线国家增幅显著,潜力巨大。

“随着供给侧结构性改革的深入推进,我国产业结构调整初见成效,形成了一批外贸新优势产品。”刘英奎表示,上半年,我国部分高附加值机电产品和装备制造产品出口保持良好态势,如汽车出口增长32.5%,船舶增长25.1%,电动机及发动机增长6.5%,医疗仪器及器械增长12.7%,无人机增长93.4%,竞争力持续增强。

展望下半年外贸形势,黄颂平认为,“我国外贸发展稳中向好的基本面没有改变,在不发生大的风险情况下,经过持续努力,我国外贸进出口有望延续回稳向好的势头。外贸结构持续优化,下半年进出口仍会保持正增长。”

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