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机构预测二季度GDP同比增长6.8% 货政调整可能性非常小

2017-07-07 09:48:20   

机构预测二季度GDP同比增长6.8% 继续保持稳中向好

专家表示,从经济基本面的角度,货币政策调整可能性非常小,金融监管和流动性紧平衡将贯穿全年

■本报记者 苏诗钰

7月17日,国家统计局将召开国民经济运行情况新闻发布会,公布二季度GDP和6月份高频经济数据。《证券日报》记者整理发现,多家机构表示二季度中国经济继续保持稳中向好的态势,预计GDP同比增长6.8%,增速较一季度放缓0.1个百分点。

中银国际证券首席宏观分析师朱启兵认为,二季度经济数据继续保持平稳,从PMI数据看,二季度非制造业商务活动指数均值为54.5%,略低于一季度的54.6%;制造业PMI均值为51.4%,低于一季度的51.6%。不过,无论是制造业PMI还是非制造业商务活动指数,均从4月份起呈向上趋势。综合看,二季度经济依然韧性较强,预计二季度GDP同比增长6.8%。

招商证券预计二季度GDP同比增长6.7%至6.8%。展望下半年,投资回落将拖累国内经济表现,但是在消费和出口需求的支撑下,下半年GDP增速回落幅度有限,完成全年经济增长目标,并力争更好成绩的问题不大。因而,从经济基本面的角度,货币政策调整可能性非常小,金融监管和流动性紧平衡将贯穿全年。

日前,第一创业一位分析师告诉《证券日报》记者,从4月份至6月份的生产情况来看,生产虽有所减速但下行幅度不大,总体保持相对平稳,预计二季度我国实际GDP同比增长6.8%。

近期,中国社科院财经战略研究院发布的课题组报告预计,2017年二季度GDP增长6.8%,CPI上涨1.4%。

中国社科院财经战略研究院综合经济战略研究部副主任、研究员汪红驹表示,2017年二季度我国经济继续保持稳中向好态势。工业生产加快,新动能继续积聚;固定资产投资、房地产投资、民间投资增速略有提高,基建投资增速都高于去年同期;中上游行业继续去产能,部分行业在前期去库存之后补库存。

“2017年上半年加强了三重监管。在房地产市场,热点城市房地产价格继续上涨,更多的城市加入需求侧限购限贷行列,房地产市场整体上恢复理性。金融严监管配合稳健中性货币政策,形成双支柱宏观金融调控框架,维护金融稳定,保障金融安全。财政严监管规范地方政府债务,化解潜在风险。”汪红驹表示。

中国社科院报告指出,因国际经济好转,国际油价回落,国内稳增长政策的空间和潜力加大,宏观政策应付各种意外冲击的能力加强。应抓住经济稳中趋好的机遇,在确保经济增长不突破底线的前提下,推进供给侧结构性改革,化解经济潜在风险,增强经济可持续发展的潜力,促进经济健康发展。预计2017年三季GDP增长6.7%左右,完成全年增长6.5%的目标不成问题。

(责编:王子侯、乔雪峰)

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