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6月制造业PMI罕见逆势而上不降反升
2017-07-03 10:57:51 经济参考报
原标题:6月制造业
PMI罕见逆势而上不降反升
国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会日前发布了中国采购经理指数。数据显示,2017年上半年制造业PMI均值为51.5%,高于去年同期1.7个百分点,6月制造业PMI为51.7%,环比上升0.5个百分点,为年内次高点,制造业扩张步伐有所加快,总体延续稳中向好的发展态势。
国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示,6月份,供需增速加快,市场环境逐步改善。生产指数和新订单指数为54.4%和53.1%,分别比上月上升1.0和0.8个百分点。
对于未来的走势,交通银行首席经济学家连平表示,当前制造业PMI和非制造业PMI都有显著上升,增长动能增强。二季度经济运行平稳,增速可能在6.8%左右,消费和出口对经济增长的拉动作用较强,投资对经济增长的贡献度下降。制造业和建筑业扩张势头能否延续有待观察,下半年经济回暖势头仍可能放缓,年内不必担心经济出现失速的风险,经济增速可能略有放缓,但总体较为平稳。
中国物流信息中心分析师陈中涛也表示,从PMI走势来看,已连续9个月保持在51%以上相对较高水平,6月份在历史同期多见下降的情况下,逆势而上不降反升,升势明显,表明经济运行中的积极因素主导作用突出,缓中趋稳、稳中向好基础趋于巩固,经济运行已进入平稳区间,预计下半年乃至全年经济保持适度平稳增长格局,增速稳定在6.5%-7%区间之内。
海通证券首席经济学家姜超则认为,仅凭6月份PMI的回升并不能断定经济短期反弹,而对于6月下旬发电耗煤增速的跳水也要高度警惕。
(责编:孙博洋、乔雪峰)
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