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除了城镇化和工业化 寻找县域经济新“抓手”至关重要

2017-06-19 10:39:39   经济参考报

县域经济是城市经济与农村经济的结合点,是我国国民经济发展的重要组成部分和战略基石。这些年来,我国县域经济的发展,基本上走的是城镇化和工业化“双轮驱动”的路子。采访中,《经济参考报》记者发现,目前,城镇化和工业化对中西部县域经济的推动作用已经减弱,有些地方甚至不堪重负。许多县委书记和县长认为,除了城镇化和工业化,县域经济很难找到抓手。

梳理记者在各县的采访可以看出,钱从哪里来?人往何处去?地从哪里来?产业何处寻?这些成为共同的困惑。

钱从哪里来?欠发达县财政支出基本靠转移支付,搞建设的钱或卖地,或是政府举债借钱,不论哪一种,都是用明天的钱做今天的事。采访中,所有县域领导提出的首要困难就是融资难。由于财政担保银行贷款和政府发债,债务已经远超自身财力,地方政府已陷于既无法发债又难以担保的“融资困境”。

江苏紫金农村商业银行一位负责人说,现在地方政府有点像企业,存在多头融资、超额融资的情况,已经超过本身的偿还能力,也使县域经济陷入资金困局。安邦咨询认为,债务问题和金融资源匮乏问题,正在锁死一些地方的发展空间。

采访中,对于举债发展到底合不合适,一些县有不同的看法。

安徽某县2015年底前负债不到十个亿,负债率不到18%。现在这个县的负责人对以前保守的做法感到惋惜。“太可惜了,想想都痛心。”在他看来,负债低并不是好事,反而说明丧失了发展机会。为了加快发展,这个县在2016年陆续成立了数家政府融资平台公司,政府负债率开始上升。

陕西某县则是大力举债发展的典型。2016年,这个县在通过债券置换化解掉近7亿债务前提下,实际债务率还超过了100%。但是,正是靠着这样的负责率,该县完成了一系列基础设施建设,布局发展了新兴的旅游产业,全县经济出现明显的上扬态势。

人往何处去?记者发现,随着我国劳动年龄人口数量开始减少,人口老龄化日趋显著,农业剩余劳动力可用空间已经不大,转移速度和规模都明显收缩,过去引以为豪的人口红利正在消失。

中国社会科学院副院长蔡昉在一次会议上说,目前我国城镇化率是56%,2020年大约是60%,到了2030年的时候就减速了,按照现在的预测只有67%,即使这样减速了的城镇化也需要依靠每年几百万到上千万的农民工继续从农村转向城市,而2014年我国农村转移人口已经到达峰值,2015年起已是负增长,人口红利在消失。

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