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5月用电增速创年内新低

2017-06-14 09:49:23   经济参考报

国家能源局6月13日发布数据显示,5月份,全社会用电量4968亿千瓦时,同比增长5.1%,与4月份相比回落0.9个百分点,创年内新低。而此前公布的5月制造业PMI数据与上月持平,财政收入增长有较大回落。在一系列先行指标有所回落的情况下,机构普遍预期,5月份工业生产增速、投资增速等数据或呈现放缓势头。

2011年后我国用电需求进入低速增长阶段,全社会用电增速持续下降,从2013年的7.5%到2014年的3.8%,2015年更是仅为0.5%,是中国过去四十年电力同比增长数据最低的一年。而进入2016年,全社会用电量出现了反弹,同比增长5%创三年来新高。这一势头延续到了2017年,前两月全社会用电量同比增长6.3%,3月份同比增长7.9%,但4月以来用电量增速逐步回落。

国家能源局数据显示,1-5月,全社会用电量累计24263亿千瓦时,同比增长6.4%。分产业看,第一产业用电量390亿千瓦时,同比增长6.1%;第二产业用电量17129亿千瓦时,增长6.3%;第三产业用电量3353亿千瓦时,增长9.0%;城乡居民生活用电量3392亿千瓦时,增长4.1%。

申万宏源首席宏观分析师李慧勇也表示,5月工业增加值同比增速将放缓至6.2%。不过他强调,从上旬的高频数据来看,6月工业生产较5月同期有较显著改善。

投资增速预计继续放缓。交通银行首席经济学家连平预计,5月固定资产投资累计增速为8.7%,继4月增速下降之后,最新数据可能延续下跌趋势。从主要投资类别来看,基建投资增速保持较快,PPP项目入库额已达14.6万亿元,已落地投资2.9万亿元,交通类投资增长快;制造业投资缓慢,增速在5%左右;房产销售资金持续回笼,但销售增速放缓,房地产企业融资增长明显放缓,房地产开发投资增速难以持续走高,拐点可能很快到来。

实际上,在4月份主要宏观经济指标回落时,机构和市场就普遍预期二季度经济增长或温和放缓。不过,国家统计局日前曾专门撰文指出,经济数据的短期波动是正常的,经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势没有改变,预测全年经济能够保持中高速增长,发展的预期目标能够实现并在实际工作中争取更好结果。

(责编:王子侯、乔雪峰)

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