新闻 > 经济
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China

5月工业和投资数据或不同程度下滑

2017-06-12 17:39:23   经济参考报

原标题:5月工业和投资数据或不同程度下滑

国家统计局周三将公布5月规模以上工业生产月度报告、固定资产投资(不含农户)月度报告、社会消费品零售总额月度报告等多项宏观经济运行数据。《经济参考报》记者综合多方预测,由于需求走弱,工业生产和投资等数据将出现回落。有专家表示,年内经济同比增速的高点大概率已经出现,受投资等多项数据波动影响,下半年的经济增速或将低于上半年。

“预计5月内需延续回落,工业生产、固定资产投资和社会零售等数据均会不同程度下滑。”方正证券首席宏观分析师任泽平在报告中指出,六大发电集团5月日均发电耗煤量同比增速11.3%,低于4月14%的同比增速,高炉平均开工率也由4月的77.4%下降至75.5%,因此预计5月工业增加值当月同比回落至6.2%。

海通证券首席宏观债券研究员姜超也认为,从国家统计局5月制造业PMI短期走平,以及财新制造业PMI跌破荣枯线来看,两者均呈现出需求稳中趋降、生产继续放缓、价格大幅回落的景象。中观数据中,下游地产、汽车需求依然疲弱,中游粗钢产量和发电量增速继续下滑,显示需求、生产双双走弱。

投资方面,多位专家预测增速或略有下降。交通银行首席经济学家连平预计,5月固定资产投资累计增速为8.7%,继4月增速下降之后,最新数据可能延续下跌趋势。从主要投资类别来看,基建投资增速保持较快,PPP项目入库额已达14.6万亿元,已落地投资2.9万亿元,交通类投资增长快;制造业投资缓慢,增速在5%左右;房产销售资金持续回笼,但销售增速放缓,房地产企业融资增长明显放缓,房地产开发投资增速难以持续走高,拐点可能很快到来。

任泽平也预计5月投资增速将下滑至8.7%。他表示,5月100个大中城市土地成交面积和总价同比增速分别为-22.7%和-29.7%,明显低于4月的1.8%和37.6%,考虑到销售对投资的滞后传导以及库存持续走低的对冲影响,预计5月房地产开发投资累计同比略降至9.2%。受金融去杠杆的影响,预计5月基建投资累计同比下滑至17.8%。

姜超表示,决定投资的核心变量是地产投资,目前的地产投资增速仍处于过去两年以来的高位水平,但由于从2016年10月开始地产调控日趋严厉,地产销售已经连续三个季度大幅下滑,考虑地产销售到投资的滞后传导期从半年延长到三个季度,其对地产投资的拖累将在今年下半年明显体现。

此外,多位专家表示,5月消费运行平稳但仍有压力。连平认为,年初消费增速出现波动,3月之后逐渐恢复平稳。食品、日用品、服装类消费增长稳健,是稳定消费增速的重要组成部分。影响当前消费增速主要有两方面原因:一是汽车购买优惠政策的刺激效应下降,汽车类消费增长缓慢;二是房地产政策对销售的影响逐渐向后续消费端传递,装潢、家具、家电类消费增速逐渐下降。

(责编:贾兴鹏、杨曦)

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China

相关阅读

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China
分享到:
0 0
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China

美图推荐

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China

为您推荐

加载更多>>
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170612/30713245.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/11/25 04:18:13

Powered by China
China