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5月工业和投资数据或不同程度下滑

2017-06-12 17:39:23   经济参考报

原标题:5月工业和投资数据或不同程度下滑

国家统计局周三将公布5月规模以上工业生产月度报告、固定资产投资(不含农户)月度报告、社会消费品零售总额月度报告等多项宏观经济运行数据。《经济参考报》记者综合多方预测,由于需求走弱,工业生产和投资等数据将出现回落。有专家表示,年内经济同比增速的高点大概率已经出现,受投资等多项数据波动影响,下半年的经济增速或将低于上半年。

“预计5月内需延续回落,工业生产、固定资产投资和社会零售等数据均会不同程度下滑。”方正证券首席宏观分析师任泽平在报告中指出,六大发电集团5月日均发电耗煤量同比增速11.3%,低于4月14%的同比增速,高炉平均开工率也由4月的77.4%下降至75.5%,因此预计5月工业增加值当月同比回落至6.2%。

海通证券首席宏观债券研究员姜超也认为,从国家统计局5月制造业PMI短期走平,以及财新制造业PMI跌破荣枯线来看,两者均呈现出需求稳中趋降、生产继续放缓、价格大幅回落的景象。中观数据中,下游地产、汽车需求依然疲弱,中游粗钢产量和发电量增速继续下滑,显示需求、生产双双走弱。

投资方面,多位专家预测增速或略有下降。交通银行首席经济学家连平预计,5月固定资产投资累计增速为8.7%,继4月增速下降之后,最新数据可能延续下跌趋势。从主要投资类别来看,基建投资增速保持较快,PPP项目入库额已达14.6万亿元,已落地投资2.9万亿元,交通类投资增长快;制造业投资缓慢,增速在5%左右;房产销售资金持续回笼,但销售增速放缓,房地产企业融资增长明显放缓,房地产开发投资增速难以持续走高,拐点可能很快到来。

任泽平也预计5月投资增速将下滑至8.7%。他表示,5月100个大中城市土地成交面积和总价同比增速分别为-22.7%和-29.7%,明显低于4月的1.8%和37.6%,考虑到销售对投资的滞后传导以及库存持续走低的对冲影响,预计5月房地产开发投资累计同比略降至9.2%。受金融去杠杆的影响,预计5月基建投资累计同比下滑至17.8%。

姜超表示,决定投资的核心变量是地产投资,目前的地产投资增速仍处于过去两年以来的高位水平,但由于从2016年10月开始地产调控日趋严厉,地产销售已经连续三个季度大幅下滑,考虑地产销售到投资的滞后传导期从半年延长到三个季度,其对地产投资的拖累将在今年下半年明显体现。

此外,多位专家表示,5月消费运行平稳但仍有压力。连平认为,年初消费增速出现波动,3月之后逐渐恢复平稳。食品、日用品、服装类消费增长稳健,是稳定消费增速的重要组成部分。影响当前消费增速主要有两方面原因:一是汽车购买优惠政策的刺激效应下降,汽车类消费增长缓慢;二是房地产政策对销售的影响逐渐向后续消费端传递,装潢、家具、家电类消费增速逐渐下降。

(责编:贾兴鹏、杨曦)

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