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一季度需求高位回落 黄金魅力能否继续闪耀?

2017-05-29 17:36:07   新华社

原标题:一季度需求高位回落 黄金魅力能否继续闪耀?

一季度需求高位回落 黄金魅力能否继续闪耀?

根据世界黄金协会的研究报告,今年第一季度,全球黄金总需求为1034.5吨,较去年同期下降18%。这种变化是否意味投资者对黄金的青睐程度有所降低?作为重要的投资产品,未来黄金需求和价格走势如何?

世界黄金协会中国区董事总经理王立新分析说,第一季度黄金总需求放缓,主要由于黄金ETF(交易型开放式指数基金)的流入和央行购金需求双双放缓。

数据显示,第一季度全球黄金ETF共流入109.1吨,表现较为稳健,但与去年同期相比差距很大。同时,前3个月各国央行黄金净购买量为76吨,比2016年第一季度下降了27%。

有业内人士指出,2016年第一季度的黄金需求是有记录以来表现最为强劲的一个季度,因此今年同期黄金需求同比大幅下降,离不开对比基数较高的因素,对投资者而言,黄金资产依然具有吸引力。

零售投资需求的稳健一定程度印证了这种观点。一季度,全球范围内金条和金币的投资同比增长9%至289.8吨。

“中国是近年来全球最大的黄金购买国。受益于金价在农历新年前的持续涨势,中国投资者成了金条和金币需求上升背后的关键力量。”王立新说。

黄金饰品的需求依然低迷。《全球黄金年鉴2017》显示,去年全球黄金饰品产量降至10年来最低。今年第一季度,全球金饰需求为481吨,略好与去年同期,印度市场消费回暖是需求增加的主要原因。

在价格方面,第一季度黄金价格上涨9%,与2016年前三个月10%的涨幅旗鼓相当。不过有分析师指出,美元近期走弱意味着除个别货币外,以大多数其他国家本国货币计量的黄金价格涨幅较小。

值得关注的是,进入二季度后金价呈现震荡态势。其中,4月份上半月和下半月走势截然不同:4月17日黄金价格劲升至5个月来的高点,但之后回吐大部分涨幅。5月初金价进一步下挫并触及两个月来的低位,此后则连续反弹,并在5月24日美联储发布5月货币政策会议纪要后表现出了一定的抗跌性。

资深黄金投资分析师周英皓认为,当前国际黄金价格已表现出明显的上行意愿,未来有望触及每盎司1300美元关口。他表示,当前全球经济复苏乏力,经济格局扑朔迷离,投资者风险偏好降低,黄金的避险“魅力”凸显,仍将受到投资者的青睐并被配置于投资组合中。

“中国黄金产业的转型升级将进一步鼓励黄金金融投资产品的创新。”王立新表示,从中长期来看,他对中国黄金市场的未来持乐观态度。

(责编:闫枫、窦明)

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