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住房限购政策扩大到三四线城市,库存都去完了?

2017-05-25 17:28:08   

近期,保定出台了10年限售的政策,颇受关注。此类政策严厉程度甚至超过了热点一二线城市。但与此同时,我们也注意到部分城市购房政策继续趋于宽松。所以,一个清晰的结论是:三四线楼市政策正处于分化的状态。如何看待此类现象,如何引导各类购房资金的流动,是当前需要解决的问题。

作者 严跃进(上海易居房地产研究院研究总监)

政策调控呈三步走特征

即便是对于过热的三四线城市来说,政策收紧的做法也不会一次性到位,而是会采取“三步走”的模式。比如说保定楼市近期持续加码,但其实也是遵循了循序渐进的过程。此前几个月保定执行了限购政策,但现在在限购政策的基础上又增加了限售版本。此类政策较好地吻合了河北省楼市调控的导向,对于保定打击各类炒房需求、防止炒作雄安新区概念等有积极的作用。按照此类逻辑,若后续市场继续火热,政策再加码的可能依然是存在的。

保定调控不断加码的做法,并非特例,其他热点三四线城市也有类似的现象。总结起来,三步走战略主要分为以下路径。第一步是取消购房优惠政策。比如今年镇江和芜湖等城市取消了外地人购房给予补贴的做法。第二步是落实温柔的收紧政策,比如说商贷利率回归基准、公积金二套贷款和二次贷款适当收紧、外地人在没有社保条件下允许认购一套住房等。第三步则是有实质性的严厉的收紧政策,包括提高首付比例、外地人需要交纳一年社保、认房又认贷、增加限售期等,类似政策对于买卖行为有很明显的调控,属于需求端的调控方式,政策叠加效应下预计效果会比较好。而其他热点三四线城市若后续房地产市场价格有继续抬头的现象,也会采取此类杀伤力相对大的政策。

政策分化是因为市场也在分化

需要看到的是,虽然保定等城市政策非常严厉,但不代表三四线城市政策都在趋严,实际上不同的三四线城市正面临着不同的楼市政策,部分较为严厉,部分还有继续放松的可能。此类三四线城市主要是指地级市,过去都可以理解为高库存的城市,但经历了这一轮楼市调控以后,楼市基本面发生了较大的分化,楼市政策也会随着发生分化。

和保定类似的城市实际上有很多,市场走势和政策逻辑也类似。比如说京津冀的唐山,过去唐山一直是属于高库存的城市,去库存周期超过了3年的水平。但最新一期国家统计局的数据却显示,唐山房价涨幅是70个城市最大的。这也是近期唐山出台限购政策的原因所在。类似的城市如长三角的嘉兴、无锡,珠三角的佛山、清远,南京都市圈的芜湖、滁州等,都有类似的市场表现和政策表现。

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