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失落的黄金:说好的“黑天鹅”飞了 价格遭遇重创

2017-04-26 14:35:29   中国经济网

原标题:失落的黄金:说好的“黑天鹅”飞了 价格遭遇重创

此前被市场视为潜在“黑天鹅”的法国大选第一轮投票于上周日尘埃落定,结果基本符合市场预期,令避险需求迅速消退,导致周一国内外黄金价格双双遭遇重创。然而,在法国大选之前,投机者连续五周增持黄金净多仓,表明市场出现过度拥挤的状态。

投行高盛最新报告表示,预计金价将在短期内承压,未来三个月目标价位在1200美元/盎司。那么,这一次高盛的判断会是正确的吗?

风险偏好下降引发抛售潮

万众瞩目的法国大选第一轮投票没有出现“黑天鹅”。上周日(4月23日)法国大选首轮投票结果显示,中间派候选人马克龙与极右翼候选人勒庞杀入最终的角逐,但调查预期马克龙之后将轻松战胜勒庞,这使得避险情绪大大降温,引发黄金市场的抛售。

周一亚盘时段黄金价格上演高空跳水,创下近两个月来最大单日跌幅,并触及1265.12美元/盎司的两周低位。沪金价格也随之大幅走低,最低触及283.5元/克,创下一周多低位。

金石期货分析师黄李强表示,法国大选初轮极右翼候选人并没有获得最高选票,法国未来政策保守、孤立的概率大大下降,市场担忧情绪得到缓解,黄金因此出现大跌。

其实,刚刚过去的一周对于贵金属市场来说还是相当不平静,地缘局势紧张及欧洲政治不确定性持续支撑着贵金属价格,但黄金未能连续第六周收阳,价格还几度遭遇“过山车”行情。随着5月7日第二轮选举临近,投资者预计金价将进一步波动。

值得注意的是,法国大选之前,投机者连续五周增持黄金净多仓,创下去年英国公投以来最长连续增仓纪录,表明投机做多仓位过于拥挤。

美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)上周五(4月21日)公布的周度报告显示,截至4月18日当周,对冲基金和基金经理连续第五周增持COMEX黄金净多头头寸,净多仓攀升至五个月高位。数据显示,COMEX黄金投机净多头头寸增加20856手,至161263手,为去年11月初以来最高位。

德国商业银行在一报告中表示:“那些以前仍然大量投注黄金价格上涨的投机性金融投资者,可能会因为法国选举结果而大幅补仓。”

避险光环还能闪耀多久

除了法国大选外,本周黄金市场的热门话题仍围绕着特朗普政府的政策变化。黄金市场会否再掀巨浪?

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