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住房市场限购限售限贷“短效机制”或成新长效机制

2017-04-24 17:57:41   经济参考报

构建住房市场稳健均衡发展的长效机制曾经是楼市热议话题之一。有人说,开征房产税就是稳定住房市场的长效机制。也有人说,土地特别是集体土地的市场化改革才是住房市场平稳发展的长远之策。然而,经历了长时间的期盼与等待,这些所谓的长效机制却似乎始终未能面世。另一方面,伴随着房价一轮又一轮的快速上涨,我们又不停地把经济学家所鄙视的限购、限贷等“短效政策”重新启用或加码,以应市场燃眉之急。在新一轮的调控中,限售政策也首次被采用并在各城市迅速推开。

继2016年“9·30”之后,2017年3月,以限购限贷为主要手段的楼市调控小高潮再度掀起。2017年3月17日,北京楼市调控再度加码。北京楼市新政要求“认房认贷又认离”,并进一步封堵了“商住房”限购漏洞。3月29日,杭州和厦门也在一个月内第二次升级了调控政策。至此,3月已有25城启动或升级了楼市调控政策。各地调控政策的集中升级显然也与2月局部地区楼市重新出现异动有关。据中国社科院财经战略研究院大数据房价指数(BHPI)监测发现,2017年2月房价在总体稳定的同时,部分城市调控政策效果有所减退。局部楼市经历短暂沉寂后迅速升温,个别城市出现“二月疯”。BHPI指数显示,2017年2月,30个样本城市中,有25个环比上涨,其中19个环比涨幅在1%以上,另有4个城市房价环比下跌。25个环比上涨城市中,有14个城市环比涨幅较上月继续扩大,11个城市环比涨幅较上月收窄。

除了限购限贷,限售也开始被应用到本轮楼市调控中。2017年4月19日,济南市政府发布通知,要求限购区域内自通知施行之日起购买的住房,须取得不动产权证满2年后方可上市交易。至此,成都、厦门、福州、青岛、杭州、广州、珠海、惠州、扬州、常州、海南、东莞、西安、济南等超过18个区域市场,历史上首次启动了买房后需要过一定年限方可上市的楼市调控政策。

而据2017年两会消息,被普遍视为重要长效机制的房产税并未列入2017年立法计划。土地市场改革,也迟迟未见新进展。为什么我们期盼的楼市长效机制难以推出,而限购、限贷、限售这些看似违背经济规律的“短效机制”却大行其道呢?楼市长效机制到底是什么?

考察楼市长效机制,离不开对楼市的科学定位。中国住房改革历史经验表明,中国大城市住房供求矛盾长期突出,住房产品不宜完全商品化。以经济适用房为主体的新加坡住房模式,也许更为符合中国大城市住房长期短缺的国情。2016年12月,中央经济工作会议提出要坚持“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”的定位,要求回归住房居住属性。2016年底,中央财经领导小组第十四次会议指出要准确把握住房的居住属性。这是立足中国国情和住房政策实践教训,对中国住房市场的科学再定位。有限制的市场化,将是构建中国楼市长效机制的基本方略。应当说,新加坡式经济适用房模式,是非常贴近于中央对住房市场的最新科学定位的。

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