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北京全面进入存量房时代 二手房成交占比达到85%

2016-12-28 18:14:43   

原标题:北京全面进入存量房时代 二手房成交占比达到85%

二手房成交占比达到85%

以二手房流通为核心,已经成为中国房地产市场非常重要的一部分。截至2016年12月26日,北京全年二手房成交总量已经刷新年度纪录,在整个市场的成交中占比再次攀升,达到85%。北京全面进入存量房时代。

北京二手房成交占比首次破80%

中原地产研究中心统计数据显示,截至12月26日,今年北京二手房住宅签约267860套,刷新历史年度纪录,成为北京二手房历史上第二个签约量超过20万套的年度。不仅如此,从全年商品房住宅(剔除保障房自住房)的成交情况来看,二手房在住宅成交中的比例进一步上升。2009年之后,北京二手房成交占比都在70%上下浮动,去年占比达到78.5%,今年更是高达85%。

北京住宅市场正从增量向存量市场过渡,房地产市场格局将迎来深刻变化。北京新建商品房价格普遍“高端化”,二手房已成许多刚需和改善型刚需购房者主要的置业方向。在楼市价格走势上,新房市场开发商在楼盘销售中处于强势地位,而二手房市场是个体对个体的业务,成交价格是基于市场预期以及买卖双方通过平等的讨价还价方式达成,房价更多将依赖市场机制调节。“决定市场价格的已经不是新房市场价格,而是二手房的价格,二手房签约量、交易税负、贷款等政策,将决定市场的波动。”中原地产首席分析师张大伟表示。

全国二手房交易额8年涨10倍

除了北京外,目前一线城市的二手房成交面积都在新房的2倍以上。数据显示,2016年上海二手房占市场住宅成交比例接近80%。同时,南京、福州等二线城市的二手房交易活跃程度也开始超过新房。

全国二手房的交易额在迅速增长。链家研究院预计,2016年全国新房交易额10万亿左右,二手房的交易额在5万亿元左右;而在2008年,中国新房交易额大约是2.5万亿元,二手房交易额不足0.5万亿。也就是说,在这几年当中,全国房地产交易额从3万亿增加至15万亿,增长了5倍。而二手房从当年的不足0.5万亿增长到5万亿,增长了10倍,增长最快。“中国整体上正在快速进入到存量房时代,存量房已经是中国房地产市场越来越重要的力量之一。”链家研究院院长杨现领表示。

旧城改造或成新增长点

目前北京、上海等一线城市已经严格控制土地规划,北京还试点“限房价、竞地价”土地政策,面对“生产资料”的严格限制,开发商怎么办?在业内看来,旧城改造或成为城市发展的新增长点之一。事实上,不少房企已经把目光转向旧城改造业务,如万科、首开、中粮等都有这方面的业务。

中原地产首席分析师张大伟认为,中国房地产经过20年的发展,一二线城市开始进入存量房时代,表明过去的积极发展模式需要开始转变,经济结构转型已经迫在眉睫,“地方土地财政难以持续,卖地金额锐减,地方政府也要转变发展模式来增加经济活力。”北京晨报记者 杨奕

(责编:贾兴鹏、夏晓伦)

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