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陈光金:2016年GDP增速应该能达到6.7%左右
人民网北京12月21日电 (杨曦)今日,2017年《社会蓝皮书》发布暨中国社会形势报告会在京举行。中国社科院社会学所所长陈光金表示,2016年GDP增速高于6.5%没有悬念,应该能够达到6.7%左右的水平。
陈光金表示,10-11月份整个的济形势总体上是平稳的,尽管相比于2015年,从季度的比较来看,增速明显是下降了一些。和去年四季度相比是下降了0.2个百分点,但全年度来看,至少前三个季度是平稳的,没有出现起伏波动。而且我们注意到,10-11月经济形势维持稳定,全年增速高于6.5%没有悬念,应该能够达到6.7%的水平,应该是高一点或者是低一点。
陈光金强调,经济的结构继续改善。2015年一季度和2016年一季度的比较,第三产业两个年份的前三季度比较,可以发现增加值继续上升,当然上升的幅度可能不像某些人所期待的那样快速跳跃式增长,因为那样一种增长本身并不是健康的。有序、平稳的调整才是符合经济社会发展的需求和规律,中国的工业化到目前为止,从全国来看,有一个评估,到目前为止也就是进入工业化中期的后期阶段。发达地区到了后期,西部地区可能还在前期或者是中期的前期阶段。所以在这个阶段,工业化和农业的发展还是非常重要的,所以我们不能指望把第三产业下子蹦跳到80、70,所以这个趋势应该是合理的、缓慢的、平稳的调整。
陈光金还表示,供给侧结构性改革初见成效,经济增长质量有所提升。从去产能、去库存方面来看。前三季度原煤产量同比下降10.5%,8月份规模以上工业企业产成品的存货连续5月同比下降。到9月末商品房的代售面积连续7个月减少。补短板,在环境保护、农林水和基础设施建设处于短板的状况的领域投资较快增长。产业升级、惠民生方面都有积极变化的趋势,表明供给侧结构性改革确实是初见成效。
(责编:杨曦、夏晓伦)
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