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楼市现降温迹象:房价涨幅放缓 成交量下降

2016-11-21 07:45:17   经济参考报

近日,国家统计局发布10月70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况显示,10月一、二线城市新建商品住宅价格环比分别上涨0.5%和1.3%,分别比9月回落2.8和1.0个百分点;二手住宅价格环比分别上涨0.6%和0.8%,分别比9月回落2.9和1.1个百分点。一线城市和二线城市房地产市场明显降温,房价环比涨幅快速回落。

业内人士指出,国庆前后全国性的房地产市场调控出台,使得延续了一年多的此轮房地产快速上涨周期中断。但值得注意的是,在资金未完全收紧的情况下,市场可能继续保持“量跌价滞涨”的格局。

 降温 房价涨幅明显放缓

统计局数据显示,在调控政策的抑制下,房价涨幅明显放缓。9月,70大中城市在新建商品房住宅环比平均上涨1.8%,二手房平均上涨1.45%均刷新了历史纪录。10月快速降温,新建商品房住宅环比上涨为1.07%,二手房环比上涨0.64%,均出现明显下调。

从10月房价指数的城市变化看,70重点城市中45个城市新建商品房住宅价格指数相比9月出现了涨幅放缓。具体来看,北京从9月环比涨幅4.9%减至0.6%,郑州从7.6%的涨幅降至3.5%,青岛从4.7%下调至1.3%,上海从3.2%降至0.5%,济南也从此前的5.2%降至3.4%。

此外,涨幅超2%的城市数量较9月大幅减少一半以上。数据显示,9月,70大中城市新建商品住宅价格环比涨幅超过1%的城市多达40个,其中,有23个城市环比涨幅超过2%,5个城市环比涨幅更是超过了5%。但来到10月,环比涨幅超过2%的城市仅11个,较9月的23个大幅减少52%;涨幅超过1%的城市也从此前的40个降至28个。

亚豪机构市场总监郭毅认为,国庆前后的这一轮全国性房地产市场调控,收紧程度之严,波及范围之广,为近5年之最,由此也使得延续了一年多的此轮房地产快速上涨周期被中断。

中原地产市场总监张大伟也表示,9月末以来,全国共有22个城市集中出台楼市调控收紧政策,一轮整体性的调控政策收紧局面确立。此次各地调控升级力度强劲,限购、限贷等关键内容在新政中均有详细涉及。

  萎缩 楼市成交量环比下滑

在前期市场火爆局面的支撑下,1-10月,商品房销售额达91482亿元,同比增长41.2%,已超2015年全年87281亿元销售水平。同时,销售面积达120338万平方米,同比增长26.8%,创造历年同期最高纪录。

但从10月单月来看,房地产成交出现快速下滑。中原地产研究中心统计数据显示:截至10月30日,10月全国54个城市合计签约商品房住宅270164套,这也是近3个月来第一次跌下30万套,较9月相比跌幅达到了15%。同时,10月主要城市目前的推盘认购率已大幅下跌至64%,环比跌幅达14个百分点,几乎是今年4月以来的最低水平。

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