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10月份中国制造业PMI创逾两年以来新高

2016-11-02 16:33:39   中国经济网

主持人包兴安:今年前三个季度GDP增速均为6.7%,这表明中国经济运行比较平稳。其他指标继续回暖,如10月份中国制造业PMI明显回升,巩固了制造业复苏态势,预示着后期经济增长动能恢复。我们认为,2016年完成年初定的经济增长目标问题不大。

预示四季度经济继续保持稳中向好的趋势

■本报记者 苏诗钰

中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局服务业调查中心1日发布的数据显示,10月份中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为51.2%,比上月上升0.8个百分点,创逾两年以来新高。同日公布的中国非制造业商务活动指数(PMI)为54%,环比上升0.3个百分点。两项指数表现好于预期,预示四季度经济继续保持稳中向好的趋势。

国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示,制造业PMI明显上升主要是生产和市场需求回暖,扩张有所加快。新动能加速聚集,结构持续优化。同时,供给侧改革取得积极进展,部分传统行业生产经营状况有所改善。价格持续回升,进一步刺激生产。

从制造业PMI的12个分项指数来看,同上月相比,新出口订单指数、进口指数有所下降,其余10个指数均有所上升。其中,下降的2个指数降幅均在1个百分点内;上升的指数中,只有新订单指数、原材料购进价格指数升幅超过1个百分点,其余指数升幅均在1个百分点内。

与此同时,制造业企业对未来预期进一步改善。一方面,受大宗商品价格回升的影响,企业加快原材料采购速度。10月原材料库存指数升至48.1%,较上月回升0.7个百分点,涨幅仅次于今年3月,采购量指数为52.4%,较上月回升0.5个百分点;另一方面,生产经营活动预期指数连续4个月回升,达到58%以上较高水平。

与此同时,制造业企业对未来预期进一步改善。一方面,受大宗商品价格回升的影响,企业加快原材料采购速度。10月原材料库存指数升至48.1%,较上月回升0.7个百分点,涨幅仅次于今年3月,采购量指数为52.4%,较上月回升0.5个百分点;另一方面,生产经营活动预期指数连续4个月回升,达到58%以上较高水平。

国金证券一位分析师在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,中国制造业PMI指数的分类项继续全面回升,巩固了制造业复苏态势,预示着后期经济增长动能恢复。在经济增长动能出现复苏迹象后,货币政策将继续保持稳健,降息必要性下降。后续稳增长或将主要依靠财政配合,通过基建投资和制造业投资的扩张,对冲房地产投资的逐渐下滑,并带动整体经济稳步增长。

“2016年以来,经济企稳回升,企业盈利改善,通胀压力上升,金融系统风险累积,货币政策边际收紧,为维持‘稳健的货币政策’基调,央行需要适应和匹配中国经济金融形势的变化,货币政策中‘稳增长’权重下降,‘防风险’权重上升,资金面波动加大将成为新常态,监管趋严是大势所趋。”邓海清表示。

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