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各方能否阻止伊拉克分裂?

2017-09-19 17:42:01   国际在线

伊拉克库尔德自治区(库区)议会15日在停摆近两年后首次召开会议,正式批准于9月25日就库区独立问题举行公投。分析人士指出,由于伊拉克中央政府强烈反对,库区内部围绕公投分歧犹存,土耳其、伊朗等邻国反对态度坚决,再加上美国等方面希望维持伊拉克统一以免影响反恐战事,库区公投在最后关头仍可能存在变数。

库区内部分歧犹存

库尔德民主党(库民党)议员巴沙尔15日在议会会议结束后对新华社记者说,绝大多数与会议员投票支持于9月25日举行公投。但库区议会111名议员中仅有68人出席当晚的会议,库区两个反对党“变革运动”和库尔德斯坦伊斯兰组织的30名议员均对议会予以抵制。由此可见,库区内部主要政党间的分歧仍未解决。

今年6月,由库区主席巴尔扎尼领导的库尔德民主党和由伊拉克前总统塔拉巴尼领导的库尔德斯坦爱国联盟(库爱盟)举行会议,讨论库区公投问题。巴尔扎尼在会后宣布,将于9月25日就库区独立问题举行公投。

“变革运动”随即对公投决定的合法性提出质疑,称公投决定应由库区议会作出,而不是由政党宣布。该党同时还质疑巴尔扎尼主席职位的合法性。

随着公投日期临近,库区领导层希望尽快重启议会,由议会通过关于公投的相关决议。库民党、库爱盟和“变革运动”日前就公投问题举行三方谈判,但未能达成一致。“变革运动”最终抵制了15日的会议,也不承认议会通过的决议。

 “争议地区”问题难解

根据库区方面公布的计划,举行公投的地区不限于库区管辖省份,还包括目前由库尔德人控制但与伊拉克中央政府存在管辖权争议的地区。

伊拉克境内的库尔德人于上世纪70年代获得自治权,但直到海湾战争后才在埃尔比勒、苏莱曼尼亚和杜胡克三省建立自治区。同时,库区一直将其他一些地区视为库尔德人的固有土地。

2003年伊拉克战争期间,库区武装占领原属中央政府管辖的基尔库克等多个省份的大片地区。战后,伊中央政府无力进入库尔德人控制区,“争议地区”问题随即产生。2014年,极端组织“伊斯兰国”在伊北部肆虐,库区在打击“伊斯兰国”过程中进一步扩大了自己的地盘。

由于涉及土地归属,“争议地区”问题极为敏感,解决难度很大,是伊中央政府和库区间最主要的分歧之一。

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