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从特朗普年内访华看中美关系逻辑

2017-09-14 09:57:31   国际在线

据路透社援引美国不具名官员的话报道,美国总统特朗普有可能在今年11月份在亚洲出席一系列会议期间访问中国。中国国务委员杨洁篪12日过境华盛顿期间会见美国国务卿蒂勒森,杨洁篪表示,特朗普总统将于年内对中国进行国事访问,中方愿与美方共同努力,推动访问取得积极成果。

分析人士注意到,这些都是特朗普年内访问中国的最新具体信息,中美双方显然在就落实这一事宜相向而行。

今年以来中美关系的实际运行情况显示,两国关系不缺正面动力,但彼此之间的问题也很多,在朝鲜半岛危机、贸易关系等方面,美方对华尤其爱发牢骚。特朗普政府的对华战略至今不甚清晰,双方关系大体通过一件又一件事情形成轮廓。对中美关系乐观和悲观的人都能找到自己的证据。

华盛顿方面如今表达不满情绪时用的有些词汇更直白了,还有时会采取显示自己“脾气”的行动。但美方同时表现出大的分寸感,它对中方的尊重和对中美关系的重视也不隐晦。特朗普政府不太想在国际领域搞得天翻地覆的,它更愿意给重振国内经济营造一个有利于实现“美国优先”的环境,这一总思路似乎没有变。

曾被视为特朗普“精神教父”甚至“隐形总统”的班农在离开白宫后,说话“更自由了”,他在日前把中国比喻为“1930年的德国”,宣称“一百年后,人们会记得我们为阻止中国称霸世界所做的努力”。此前班农还说中美已处于经济战争中,并且预言十年之内中美会在南海开战,他的这些话在西方都已经“挺有名的”。

但是班农12日在香港却说了另一番话。他强调自己从未反对过中国,他还高度赞扬了中国领导人,认为中国管理经济体系的方式是聪明的,还表示中美可以避免贸易战。

班农未必是“前后矛盾”的。他对中国的认识看来在围绕着中国的崛起和强大展开。他既承认中国不是无缘无故崛起的,对中国的力量抱以一定的现实主义态度,但他对“美国优先”的追求又是不顾规则的。班农虽已是一个“自由身”,但他的表现仍能折射特朗普团队的一些基本思路。

在接下来的时间里,华盛顿很可能会在朝鲜和贸易问题上继续采取一些之前政府不常用的施压手段,但它不会用极端动作冒绷断中美关系的风险,它会愿意保持中美关系大的平稳。

华盛顿一名官员星期二表示,如果中国政府不采取进一步措施回应美方制裁朝鲜的要求,美方将单方面针对中国公司采取行动。安理会刚通过新制裁决议,美方单方面制裁的棍子就又要举起来,这样的做法如今“很美国”。

在特朗普访问北京之前,这样的复杂信号美方估计还会发很多。华盛顿一直以它的方式“配合”中美重大外交事件,它的这套路数中方已经很熟悉。

同美国打交道,中国需要不断调整讲大局和敢于斗争的政策比例以及执行方式。与美国很难制定一个解决纠纷的一劳永逸规则,中国要同美国就具体事斗争,形成一个又一个“判例”,塑造起起伏伏但又大方向总体清晰的两国关系。

特朗普政府对中国的尊重明显高于对美一些盟国的尊重,不能不说这种尊重是中国赢得的。中国的实力,中国的克制和在重要问题上的坚持,使得中美关系的双向塑造性质要高于美国与很多国家的关系。这点今后一定要坚持下去。

(环球时报社评 原标题:从特朗普年内访华看中美关系逻辑)

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