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华夏基金轩伟:9月市场信心总体保持平稳 冲高回落压力或加大

2017-09-06 14:41:50   央广网

央广网9月6日消息 8月份A股市场先抑后扬,8月中旬由于市场避险情绪提升一度引发指数出现调整,但随后市场趋于理性,在周期和金融等行业的轮番引领下,大盘强势反弹突破3300点。此外,市场热点向中小股票持续扩散,创业板强势反弹,市场气氛维持活跃。

华夏基金首席策略分析师轩伟表示,展望9月份市场,基本面方面,国内经济仍延续复苏趋势,企业盈利仍处于改善通道,但二季度盈利增速有所放缓。六月份以来经济数据总体超预期,来自于三、四线城市地产的支撑以及外需向好带动下的出口改善,对今年经济拉动作用明显。虽然经济复苏的韧性和潜力还很大,但形成新一轮高速增长周期的基础仍不牢固,经济增速在未来仍会面临考验。流动性方面,货币政策重在防风险、稳总量,预计近期依然以稳定总量流动性、提高资金面稳定性为主基调,中短期内不太可能有太多变化,在央行的呵护下,市场流动性并无太大风险。政策层面,监管态度对中小创股票出现一定的缓和,例如管理层表态支持兼并重组、双创的重新提及、证金持股、IPO持续平稳等,之前中小创连续深跌,逐步进入价值区域,具备反弹基础。金融去杠杆导向下,监管从严还会持续,但预计对市场冲击相对有限。

轩伟认为,近期支持行情持续反弹的主要条件来自于基本面和盈利的改善趋势,外部环境的相对平稳,以及监管政策对市场的稳定,随着市场反弹至相对高位区间,短期上涨可能会面临挑战,9月末同业存单到期量较大,资金面或有时点性紧张,需要警惕对市场的扰动。不过他强调,考虑到目前市场存量资金充裕,赚钱效应持续,仍需积极关注结构性投资机会,他表示看好景气趋势向上的电子、新能源汽车等行业,以及业绩持续增长、估值已经部分消化的优质成长股,此外,消费领域业绩增长稳健,临近年底存在估值切换的投资机会。

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