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国内成品油价存在下调可能

2017-08-30 06:22:08   中国青年网

近日,石油输出国组织(欧佩克)与非欧佩克产油国在维也纳举行会议,讨论减产协议履约率下滑问题。由于最近几个月欧佩克产量上升,减产履约率下滑备受关注。

专家分析,虽然市场需求疲软,后期油价走势仍趋于弱势,但我国石油行业已建立市场反应系统,应对油价波动适应性强,无需忧虑。

据了解,欧佩克减产履约率连续两月低于90%,这表明该组织旨在终结全球原油供应过剩的努力似乎陷入停滞状态。包括沙特在内的一些产油国原油产量略高于其生产计划。享有减产豁免权的利比亚和尼日利亚原油产量剧增。此外,伊拉克和阿尔及利亚等国尚未按承诺削减供应,这严重打击了原油市场的信心。

“此次美国页岩气的产能释放,石油产量增加,也在一定程度上打压了油价。”中国石油大学教授刘毅军指出。

有专家表示,无论欧佩克能否提升减产履约率,未来几个月油价都面临下行压力;因随着夏季结束,需求下降可能重新推升库存;欧佩克可能需要延长甚至扩大减产才能消除过剩,但这并非易事。

“国际原油目前最大的利空就是供应过剩,宽松的供需关系还将长期制约原油价格,由于市场需求将继续疲软,后期油价走势仍趋弱。”刘毅军表示。

对于国内石油价格的影响,刘毅军指出,国际油价的波动对我国进口原油有影响,我国可利用国际原油的价格波动,加大进口,增加原油储备。

“受全球经济形势影响,国际原油价格持续低迷,我国石油生产和储备已经建立起了市场反应系统,对于国际原油价格的波动敏感度以及反应能力增强。”刘毅军说,目前亚太地区是全球第一大石油消费市场,因此中国原油市场变化也对全球油价供需矛盾有所影响。

专家预计,随着短期内国际油市仍将维持弱势,下一周期国内成品油价格存在下调的可能。

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