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从“稳中有进”跨入“稳中向好”
2017-08-29 06:36:02 中国青年网
牛犁
刘元春
牛犁(国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室主任)
经济稳中向好,超出预期,主要在于以下几个方面:供给侧结构性改革确确实实让传统制造领域结构得到了显著优化,生产积极性提高了;价格因素的推动,企业效益明显改善,所以积极性提高了;补库存的因素,库存从2014年下半年开始节节下降,从去年下半年开始进入补库存阶段,产成品存货拉动工业生产;外需因素。世界经济温和增长拉动外贸出口增速明显好于预期,上半年净出口对经济增长的贡献率由上年同期的-10.4%转为3.9%,对经济增长的贡献度增加了0.97个百分点。
刘元春(中国人民大学副校长)
当前宏观经济比预期要好的内在逻辑是什么?这是最重要的一个问题。它是政策性的逻辑还是市场性的逻辑?市场性的逻辑是稳定的逻辑还是短期性的因素?这是我们要探讨的更深层次的问题。国内方面主要是两方面因素超出了预期。一是消费,在于城市的消费升级和最关键的农村消费升级。这种消费升级起到了积极促进作用,包括三四线城市汽车消费状况很好,三四线城市的住房消费状况也很好,带来目前整个三四线城市城镇化内涵提升发生了质变。二是更加积极的财政政策。政府上半年的赤字有6700多亿元,基础建设上半年投入5.9万亿元,同比增长20%多。但这种强劲的积极性可能不是建立于政府的财政收入全面改善的状况之上的,政府型的增长、国有企业的增长是不可持续的,原因是我们的债务约束太高。这需要关注。(据《瞭望》2017年第30期)
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