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私募报告:大象起舞注入新动能 国内市场驶上快车道

2017-08-25 10:06:24   中国经济网

(原标题:中国私募股权市场发展报告(2017):大象起舞注入新动能 国内市场驶上快车道)

中国股权投资金牛奖评选工作组  

执笔:袁增霆中国社会科学院金融研究所

调研:中国股权投资金牛奖评选调研组  引言

据中国基金业协会不完全统计,截至2017年6月末登记备案的私募股权和创业管理人有1.1万家,管理基金2.3万只,实缴存量规模5.8万亿元。本报告试图以开阔的分析视角呈现国内私募股权投资领域的发展状况。在数据来源方面,尽可能全面地利用国内主要咨询和研究机构提供的统计和调查信息。此外,我们还重点采用了中国证券报和中国财富研究院的实地调研资料和问卷调查数据。

全球私募股权市场运行轨迹具一定趋同性

海内外私募股权市场运行轨迹之间具有一定的趋同性。在2014年至2017年上半年期间,海内外市场日渐趋同的主要运行特征包括资金募集活跃、资产价格高估、退出压力逐渐上升等。近一年多来,随着全球主要央行收紧货币政策与利率上行压力,资产估值与退出压力备受关注。与此同时,私募股权的需求依然旺盛,活跃的产业并购重组可以继续为基金退出创造有利条件。这或许预示着海内外私募股权市场处在自2010年以来出现的新常态下的长期平衡。

一、资金募集方面,全球私募股权市场大约从2013年开始处于较为宽松状态。

根据英国咨询公司Preqin的统计,全球私募股权的季度募集规模和平均单笔募集规模不断屡创新高(图1)。从2016年下半年至2017年上半年,全球宏观经济增长经历了一个短波动周期的触底反弹阶段。同期的全球私募股权市场运行也是亦步亦趋。2017年上半年的募资总规模已经逼近全球金融海啸发生之前2008年上半年时的记录。照此速度,2017年全年私募股权融资规模有望创新高。

自2016年下半年以来,一些巨无霸基金陆续登上舞台也格外引人注目。例如目标1千亿美元的软银愿景基金(Softbank Vision Fund)、目标400亿美元的黑石基础设施I期基金、目标3500亿人民币(约折合500亿美元)的中国国有企业结构调整基金、目标2000亿人民币(约折合290亿美元)的中国国有资本风险投资基金等。2017年第二季度,已经封闭的PE基金的季度平均单只融资规模接近6亿美元,相当于2012-2014年间平均水平的两倍,且过半的基金募集额度超过当初目标。单笔规模的上升反映出私募股权行业的集中度在提高。最近三年多来,大型机构在融资活动中的市场份额不断上升。

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