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经济企稳向好趋势明确

2017-08-22 07:32:01   中国青年网

国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群

经过5年多的努力,中国经济企稳向好态势开始明确,今年中国经济增长率有望达到或者超过上年水平。

经济增长企稳的基础,首先是投资增速由降转稳。2010年以后的投资增速下降,主要因房地产投资增速大幅下降。2016年房地产投资增速出现回升,今年以来继续保持。综合分析,未来房地产投资可以保持大体平稳的增长。

目前中国户籍人口城镇化率为41.2%,与常住人口规模比较,处于流动状态的人口数量巨大。这表明,中国城镇化的动力仍然十分强劲。特别值得注意的是,近年来一批二线城市人口快速增长,人气度提高速率已经超过一线城市。面对人口压力太大,发展空间不足,一线城市开始联合周边的中小城市向城市群方向发展。在中心城市带动下,一些三、四线城市的人气也在提高。中国城镇化的巨大潜力正在加快释放,中国城镇化的长周期调整开始走出谷底。

还要看到,受新型城镇化和“一带一路”建设的带动,基础设施体系建设进入新一轮更高水平的发展阶段,建设项目大量增加。与此同时,地方债置换、地方发债制度建设、PPP建设运营方式普及等使基础设施投资的资金保障条件明显改善。

经济增长企稳的基础,还与消费的平稳增长密切关联。在精准就业、精准扶贫等工作成效支持下,2012年以来就业形势保持基本平稳,2016年城镇新增就业1314万人。今年1~5月城镇新增就业599万人,比去年同期增加了22万人;居民收入增长与经济增长保持同步。预计未来消费将继续保持平稳增长。

经济增长企稳的基础,也与外需趋稳相关。今年以来出口增速明显回升,其背景是世界经济复苏的态势逐渐增强,国际贸易增速开始高于GDP增速。经济增长向好的基础,主要源于近年来的经济结构调整和转型升级。工业企业科技研发活动明显增多,由科技进步所推动的提质增效活动日益增加。

在看到经济企稳向好态势越来越明确时,也必须看到其基础尚不巩固。世界经济复苏的基础仍比较脆弱,各种不确定因素依然较多,贸易保护主义抬头,中国出口的外部环境仍然不容乐观。从国内看,房地产市场局部过热的风险仍需着力防控;加强金融监管等去杠杆举措,对流动性的影响仍需高度重视;不适应经济新常态的困难企业、僵尸企业还有待解决;高杠杆及其包含的金融风险仍然不容低估;市场竞争优胜劣汰功能急需加强,资源优化配置机制急需完善。

综合看,要增强对中国经济发展的信心,同时也要清醒地认识到仍然存在的诸多风险和挑战。要精心维护好经济企稳向好的积极势头,更加精细地落实好宏观调控各项任务,依靠市场化、法制化手段加快落实供给侧结构性改革的五大任务,加快筑牢经济中高速平稳增长的基础,推动中国经济进入含金量更高的中高速平稳发展轨道。(据《瞭望》2017年第28期)

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