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特朗普能“让美国再次伟大”吗?

2017-08-23 15:11:27   国际在线

美国总统特朗普

2016年美国总统大选中,特朗普“让美国再次伟大”竞选承诺让很多美国人热泪盈眶,他们心中昔日的豪情被重新点燃。

但特朗普入主白宫已超过二百天,人们等来的不是特朗普振兴美国的宏图大略,而是“通俄门”丑闻持续发酵,特朗普废除奥巴马医改法案努力的严重受挫,在种族问题上的不当言论,对移民和少数族裔的歧视性政策,不断爆出的令人触目惊心的白宫“宫斗”,特朗普竞选中承诺的优先施政目标如税制改革和万亿美元基础设施建设计划却一直未被严肃对待,仅公布寥寥数语的声明敷衍了事,特朗普被迫解散白宫两大顾问委员会“美国制造业委员会”和“战略与政策委员会”,与商界领袖关系急转直下。

跳出当前混乱的政策环境,未来无论特朗普究竟用何种“独门秘笈”来让美国再次伟大,都必须从根本上提升生产率。生产率是一个国家经济的长期根本动力,只有大幅提升美国国内生产率才可能真正兑现特朗普“让美国再次伟大”的竞选诺言。

目前,特朗普面临的困境是生产率增速的持续放缓和劳动力供给的不足。

根据美国劳工部的统计数据,1990-2000十年间美国非农生产率的平均年均增速为2.2%,2000-2007年的年均增速为2.6%,但是2007-2016年增速已降至1.2%。制造业行业的生产率降速更为明显,从1990-2000年平均4%,2000-2007年平均4.7%,降至2007-2016年的1.6%。美联储主席耶伦(Janet Yellen)对此非常焦虑,称这样的劳动生产率增速“令人费解”,更“令人失望”,并多次呼吁,特朗普政府制定的经济政策都应该围绕提高生产率展开。因为如果生产率增速持续下滑,美国经济将不可能走出低增长区域,其他相关问题,如债务上升,生活水平下降,失业率高企,贫富差距分化等,也将无法得到有效缓解。

特朗普在7月20日发表了执政半年的成绩单,其初衷是夸耀他兑现竞选承诺做所的努力。但从中我们却无法找到能够提升生产率直接而有效的政策举措。直接有利于提高生产率增长的税收改革和基础设施建设计划迟迟未能推出。在2018财政年度的拟议预算中,特朗普甚至要求在削减政府对教育的投入,包括消除公共服务贷款宽免计划,缩减援助计划“为本科和研究生提供兼职工作”,幅度达13.5%,这是自1980年教育部成立以来幅度最大的。不仅如此,特朗普的2018年预算中,要求大幅削减科学和医学研究,其中包括削减美国航空航天局预算5.61亿美元,减少地球探索任务数量,消除美国航空航天局的教育办公室。更让人对特朗普能否兑现其竞选承诺的前景表示怀疑。

特朗普把他2018财年称为“美国伟大的新起点”,但他却疲于应付国内政治乱局,有限的精力和时间被用于算计如何对外挥舞贸易大棒,挑战有其主导建立的国际经济秩序,“美国优先”变成了“美国至上”,不择手段,这实际上是偏离了让美国再次伟大的正确路径。(余翔,中国现代国际关系研究院美国所经济室主任,美国哈佛大学访问学者)

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