新闻
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China

航向未知是文明的标尺

2017-08-23 04:26:32   中国青年网

光明图片/视觉中国

【科海观潮】

“电梯效应”是著名科幻作家阿西莫夫曾经提及的一个概念,指的是人们在预测未来的过程当中,常常会缺少一些关键性的要素:

19世纪中期的人们,也许完全无法想象新世纪城市中的摩天大楼,因为在他们所能目见的生活经验里,要爬上数十层高的楼梯是一件极为困难的事情,因此每一幢大楼会尽可能形成一套自成体系的经济运作模式,生活所需的一切吃穿住用,都不得不隔几层就反复出现一次。大楼与大楼之间,在高层处会有桥梁相连,较低的楼层,住房租金也会相对昂贵……

——但是电梯出现了。

类似的情况也出现在手机演化的历程当中。当1966年电视机《星际迷航》出现通讯机的时候,斯波克和库克船长们最多预想到10年后马丁·库珀的翻盖手机,但某超级热门手游的出现,以及它们所引发的媒体关注,显然是以前人们所始料未及的:这也正是我们在当下想象未来太空时代时所面临的困境。

刘慈欣接受笔者采访时提到,我们当下设想最多的星际开发方向——星际旅行、太空采矿、外星移民之类——在商业上都几乎毫无价值。而比这更尴尬的事实是,从眼下航天的发展来看,载人航天,也就是将人类送到宇宙空间里,其实仍旧是一项象征意义远大于实际意义的事业。

问题在于,这种对缺乏实际意义的事情产生怀疑的冲动,几乎是人类的本能。而能够在多大程度上对抗这种本能,以及以什么方式来征服它,则往往是衡量一个族群文明程度的标尺。

我们需要关注和继承的,不仅仅是沃尔顿、托雷卡、哈里曼,乃至达尔文、麦哲伦、黎曼等等勇于航向未知远方、甚至不惜死在路途当中的个体精神,更重要的是在背后支撑他们行为的整体社会逻辑:沃尔顿、哥伦布和麦哲伦眼里的远方是好的,于是他们各自寻找到了热切的资助人,他们的船队就这样成了;尼莫船长、哈里曼先生和“钢铁侠”马斯克看潜艇、飞船和火箭是好的,于是去往海洋和星辰的路途就这样成了;黎曼和维特根斯坦看非欧几何与数理逻辑是好的,于是严谨优美但在当时未知其用的博士论文就这样成了:没人知道它们如何孕育出宏大精微的相对论、信息论和计算机。

他们获得的这些支持有时来自对远方市场的渴望,有时来自对个体的信任,有时甚至源于欺骗和钻营,但在今天回顾过去,它们最终共同支撑着这些被我们记住了名字的个体,作为人类文明的先驱者,“在百忙中下一步闲棋”。

因为电梯效应的存在,这种闲棋的前景显然是无法预测的、但它确实恰恰是我们的文明之所以为文明的原因与结果。

科幻小说惯于书写大灾难之中人类社会集中爆发出的创造性能量,而人类文明史上实际发生的远行,也往往是源自生存压力的驱动。小说中的架空世界并不比我们的现实更加美好,但在那里,文明确确实实,已经走在了联结未知远方的茫茫荒野上。

(姜未禾)

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China

相关阅读

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China
分享到:
0 0
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China

美图推荐

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China

为您推荐

加载更多>>
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11038989/20170823/31157810.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/06/17 10:02:33

Powered by China
China