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航向未知是文明的标尺

2017-08-23 04:26:32   中国青年网

光明图片/视觉中国

【科海观潮】

“电梯效应”是著名科幻作家阿西莫夫曾经提及的一个概念,指的是人们在预测未来的过程当中,常常会缺少一些关键性的要素:

19世纪中期的人们,也许完全无法想象新世纪城市中的摩天大楼,因为在他们所能目见的生活经验里,要爬上数十层高的楼梯是一件极为困难的事情,因此每一幢大楼会尽可能形成一套自成体系的经济运作模式,生活所需的一切吃穿住用,都不得不隔几层就反复出现一次。大楼与大楼之间,在高层处会有桥梁相连,较低的楼层,住房租金也会相对昂贵……

——但是电梯出现了。

类似的情况也出现在手机演化的历程当中。当1966年电视机《星际迷航》出现通讯机的时候,斯波克和库克船长们最多预想到10年后马丁·库珀的翻盖手机,但某超级热门手游的出现,以及它们所引发的媒体关注,显然是以前人们所始料未及的:这也正是我们在当下想象未来太空时代时所面临的困境。

刘慈欣接受笔者采访时提到,我们当下设想最多的星际开发方向——星际旅行、太空采矿、外星移民之类——在商业上都几乎毫无价值。而比这更尴尬的事实是,从眼下航天的发展来看,载人航天,也就是将人类送到宇宙空间里,其实仍旧是一项象征意义远大于实际意义的事业。

问题在于,这种对缺乏实际意义的事情产生怀疑的冲动,几乎是人类的本能。而能够在多大程度上对抗这种本能,以及以什么方式来征服它,则往往是衡量一个族群文明程度的标尺。

我们需要关注和继承的,不仅仅是沃尔顿、托雷卡、哈里曼,乃至达尔文、麦哲伦、黎曼等等勇于航向未知远方、甚至不惜死在路途当中的个体精神,更重要的是在背后支撑他们行为的整体社会逻辑:沃尔顿、哥伦布和麦哲伦眼里的远方是好的,于是他们各自寻找到了热切的资助人,他们的船队就这样成了;尼莫船长、哈里曼先生和“钢铁侠”马斯克看潜艇、飞船和火箭是好的,于是去往海洋和星辰的路途就这样成了;黎曼和维特根斯坦看非欧几何与数理逻辑是好的,于是严谨优美但在当时未知其用的博士论文就这样成了:没人知道它们如何孕育出宏大精微的相对论、信息论和计算机。

他们获得的这些支持有时来自对远方市场的渴望,有时来自对个体的信任,有时甚至源于欺骗和钻营,但在今天回顾过去,它们最终共同支撑着这些被我们记住了名字的个体,作为人类文明的先驱者,“在百忙中下一步闲棋”。

因为电梯效应的存在,这种闲棋的前景显然是无法预测的、但它确实恰恰是我们的文明之所以为文明的原因与结果。

科幻小说惯于书写大灾难之中人类社会集中爆发出的创造性能量,而人类文明史上实际发生的远行,也往往是源自生存压力的驱动。小说中的架空世界并不比我们的现实更加美好,但在那里,文明确确实实,已经走在了联结未知远方的茫茫荒野上。

(姜未禾)

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